WHAT IS BEING TRACKED: Low pressure to move into the region tomorrow and Friday. Rain first, then snow.
05 July 2012
UPDATE FOR FORT WAYNE, TOLEDO, DETROIT AND CLEVELAND: This afternoon, I am expecting that storms will be in the region once again as a wave of low pressure moves down from Lake Michigan. This wave, however, is going to be a bit tricky and the forecast has gone from somewhat easy, to somewhat difficult once again (and this will be the case for the next couple of days...again). All of the conditions for storm development will be present this afternoon: CAPE, MUCAPE, LI, frontal boundaries and instability...except for one, who RSVP'd simply with a "maybe" and that is moisture convergence. With everything else present, all we have to do is hope that the convergence will arrive. I am expecting that it might, which is going to be a good thing for those of you who like storms. The only problem is that there is still a chance that it will not show up. The best case scenario for this afternoon will be that the above mentioned locations get storms. The worst case scenario is that we get nothing except a brutally hot day. The clouds are already starting to break in the western half of the region as the storm complex slides out of the area. This will allow for the temperatures to continue to rise in the region once again. This will create instability as the moisture moves back in. But will the frontal boundary and the wave of low pressure be enough to get that to converge. As of now, I am going to say "yes" and I am going to keep the storms in the forecast for the afternoon. The storms that do form will do so this afternoon, and they are going to be interesting. Here are the main threats that I am expecting with these storms: Locally heavy downpours (pondage possible in some roads), gusty winds (perhaps about 5-10 minutes of winds gusting to 40 to perhaps 60-mph at the beginning of the storm), and then small hail (pea sized to quarter sized). Not all of the storms will contain that, but some of them will. I am thinking the majority of the storms will be normal. Also, when the storms do form, I am not expecting that this will be a "line" of storms - like what we saw on Friday - instead, I am thinking that it'll be a scattered storm event. There is a possibility that it might be a line event, but I believe the chances are much better for a scattered storm event rather than a line of storms. So, with all this being typed, my forecast is going to remain the same for now. I am expecting that scattered storms will develop once again in the above mentioned areas this afternoon as that wave of low pressure enters the area. The storms will then probably exit the region this evening and die off. I'll keep you updated as always, and keep checking back for updates as I monitor this afternoon's weather. For now, that's the weather! Updates will continue.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment