GREAT LAKES WEATHER

19 December 2012

Snow on the way

It is about time for the snow to make its way! The maker of this much needed Christmas decoration is a low pressure which will come up from the Plains and undergo occlusion (a process in which cooler air wraps around the centre thus giving the low its maximum intensity and then quickly weakening it). The low will develop shortly and quickly move along an intensifying upper level trough. This trough will turn into an upper level low as it moves across the Great Lakes. The system will push its warm front through the region tomorrow and that will push temperatures up around 50, but the cold front will not be far behind. The cold front, a strong one, will produce severe weather down in the southern states, and wintery weather up here. The cold front will move through the area Thursday afternoon/night and that will push temperatures down into the 30's and 20's (location depending). The fun part comes when the gusty NW winds push over the still warm lake waters, and for Cleveland to Buffalo that means lake effect. Now, I am still a bit unsure of how much snow will fall, for now I will go with about 2-4 inches for Erie. However, the temperatures and the ground temperatures will be a bit finicky for right now, and while 2-4 inches of snow may fall on Friday...some of it might not stick. This is something I will keep an eye on as the latest charts come out.

29 October 2012

Some reports to pass along

IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES:
Fairport, OH: Winds N at 32 mph with gusts of 37 mph.
Dunkirk, NY: Winds N at 28 mph with gusts of 33 mph.
Conneaut, OH: Winds N at 26 mph with gusts of 31 mph.
Buffalo, NY: Winds N at 16 mph with gusts of 25 mph.

Still no reports on wave heights at this time.

Winds will continue to increase this afternoon with the strongest winds arriving this evening and around midnight tonight. Towards sunrise, the winds will start to diminish fairly quickly in the region, going back down to a mere fall breeze by the time tomorrow evening rolls around. Rain will still be present, although the best of it will be tonight and tomorrow morning in the region. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates.

Fun System!

Hurricane Sandy is located off the coast of the OBX this morning with winds around 85 mph. Sandy is still a category 1 hurricane, and on her own the system would be interesting. Over the weekend, we saw Sandy block an upper level trough from pushing forward. This messed up the surface high pressure over Iowa which has since retreated slightly. As nobody was moving, the upper level trough tried to slip down a bit southward into places like Dallas (which got a low Saturday night around the mid 30's). The upper level trough then slipped eastward and is now in Tennessee. The trough itself, holding cooler air to its north and moist air to its south, was close enough to Sandy in that it allowed for moisture to be pumped into the storm. But after a while, the upper level trough basically had enough, and a wave of energy came down the ridge and towards the trough, as an upper level low developed over Kentucky. This being said, the wave of low pressure/upper level trough is now right next to Sandy, and Sandy is going to start working with both of the systems. However, with Sandy being the predominant low pressure, she will absorb all there is to absorb, causing her to become "post tropical" meaning that she doesn't get her energy from the tropics anymore. Sandy is going to intensify over the next 24-hours, however, there is going to be a problem to its ethics. As Sandy absorbs the other system, it will absorb the cool air that was with it. The cool air that was in place over Ohio this weekend...yep, that is the same mass of air I am talking about. This cooler air will wrap around Sandy and lead to its death starting tomorrow afternoon. However, during this absorbance, the energy between both systems will cause them to briefly turn towards the other - hence why Sandy is going to move backwards (that factor and that she'll undergo occlusion). Sandy is going to undergo occlusion as she accepts the cooler air. Occlusion is the maxing out of a low pressure system, and it is also the beginning of its end. But more on that later. Big topic this morning will be the rain showers and gusty winds associated with it.

During all of this, due to the physics of a low pressure system, Sandy has been pulling moisture from the mid levels over the majority of the weekend and placing them in places like Cleveland, Erie and Buffalo. Some gusty winds as well, but nothing too extreme. However, now the weather is going to get interesting as this system moves closer to the forecast region. The system will tighten up and continue to pull in a good amount of air with it, and this will be the cause for the winds as well. Right now, I am looking for winds in the eastern half of the region to be the highest as they will sit closer to the system. Right now, winds in the eastern half of the region are a bit on the breezy side, but nothing too extreme. But once this absorbance happens between the two systems...and the air rushes in from the north to meet with Sandy's rotation: Gusty winds! I am not one to introduce hype for a system, so I will not, but I am going to mention that if you get a chance to be outside this evening, take it. Winds are going to increase out of the north steadily throughout the day. Look for winds to start off this morning around 10-20 mph, and then increase gradually to about 25-35 mph winds with gusts around 45 mph for an average in the eastern half of the region (individual forecasts are posted). Erie will see the highest winds, from what I am expecting, in the region with potential gusts tonight around 55 mph. The winds however are not going to be lasting forever. Tomorrow morning they'll start to diminish and by tomorrow evening it will be as if they are back to normal. The rain however, that is a bit of a different story.

Rain. Rain will be around in the region as the system moves through, and we know why. Another thing too that will add to this rain will be some lake enhancement in the Cleveland, Erie and possibly Buffalo areas. While the majority of the area away from the lake will see rain fall amount varying from 2-5 inches, places like Erie could pick up between 3.00-4.00 inches of rain between today and tomorrow night. This sounds like a lot, but you must remember that it will not all come at once. The rain will basically be steady, and this will allow for most things to keep up. However, some pondage in the roads as well as some minor field flooding will be likely. Otherwise, nothing out of the normal that we normally see in fall.

I'll have more updates coming up later this morning. My forecasts are up and posted so make sure that you check those out. For now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates.

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.