GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Back to winter/Where this winter ranks

03 March 2012

Back to winter/Where this winter ranks

Forecast for the next couple of days will be rather straight forward. Our low pressure system has gone a bit insane and is moving up through lower Ontario right now and actually getting stronger. This low pressure was able to push a cold front through the region last night (hence why all the wind) and it also gave us some rain and stornms yesterday as well. The best of the storms remained to our south, but nonetheless we did get some. Temperatures in the region today will be around normal for this time of the year, and if you're heading up to Erie and Buffalo today or tomorrow, temperatures that way will be a bit below normal.

Cold front stabilized the air in the region for the most part this morning, however we're going to watch a trough move through the region later this afternoon, allowing for some snow flurries and snow showers to develop across the region. With the contrast provided by this front, once that trough makes its way over Lake Erie, we're going to watch a bit of a lake effect snow event develop in the eastern half of the region. Mainly tonight and tomorrow morning for the eastern half of the region, Erie will pick up about 1-3 inches, with Cleveland and Buffalo getting around an inch or two. Main feature with all of this is going to be the cooler temperatures in the eastern half of the region, and tomorrow, highs in the east will more than likely stay under 30-degrees for a high.

A weak low pressure system will ride down from the northern Plains during the overnight Sunday, but it'll be a little moisture deprived and shouldn't bring much more than a few snow flurries to the region - but mainly just clouds. This system will be quick moving and should stay to the south and west of the region, so I am not expecting a whole lot from that one.

Temperatures will gradually warm back up over the course of the week, and by Tuesday the region will be seeing highs near or above 50 once again as a ridge begins to develop. A high pressure will move to our south, keeping the skies clear but allowing for warmer air to be drawn in from the south, pushing our temperatures above normal once again. Then we are going to watch yet another system get ready to enter the region, but I'll type more about that later. As we go back to above normal highs in the region, I am sure that a lot of you are wondering how this winter ranks...let's go ahead and take a look:

We'll start with Toledo. The average winter temperature in Toledo for this season was 32.8F, which makes this the 10th warmest winter on record. The warmest was the winter of 1889-1890 where the average temperature was only 37.8F

Next up is Cleveland, who has seen a very warm winter this year. The average temperature so far this season has been 35.0 which makes this the 7th warmest winter on record. The warmest was the winter of 1931-32 where the average temperature was 38.7F

Next on our list is Erie, who has seen another warm winter. The average temperature this winter has been 34.5F which makes this the 10th warmest winter on record for you guys. The warmest was 1889-90 where the average temperature was only 37.9F

Those are some of the numbers for this season, and once Fort Wayne, Detroit and Buffalo numbers come in I'll be sure to pass those along.

This will probably be the only post for the day, as I am not expecting much to change. I'll have a brief update coming up later this morning, otherwise for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.