GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Warm Weather Coming Again...

16 January 2012

Warm Weather Coming Again...

The weather today is going to feel like anything but winter as we have a low pressure that is going to track to the north of the region and introduce rain showers into the region.

A high pressure to the east of the region this morning is keeping the region much warmer than I had expected. Last night I was expecting Toledo to attempt for a single digit low...Toledo hit 17.7° last night around 6.30 p.m., and last time I checked they were in the lower 20's. So not even close. Oh well, the region did get a lot chillier than I was expecting yesterday morning with areas getting into the single digits - where the clouds wheren't. But today, we're not going to see anything close to that, nor will we for tonight in the region.

A warm front is going to enter the region with the high pressure helping to usher in some warmer air into the region. This front will help bring in some rain showers into the region ahead of the approaching low pressure over in the Plains. The rain showers will begin to affect the western half of the region this afternoon. The rain showers are going to start off as widely scattered showers, however I am expecting that some filling will occur and this evening the majority of the region might be seeing steadier rain showers. Rain showers will last us through the overnight. Temperatures tonight will not be very low at all, as that front will keep them in the mid 30's (and it is only by grace that they are in the mid 30's because that rain will help to cool).

Tomorrow in the region the weather will be a bit more interesting as the cold front nears the region from its low pressure centre. The low pressure centre is going to stay to the north of the region which is why we're going to be on the warmer edge of it all. Rain showers tomorrow morning are going to be likely, but then they'll start to become widely scattered from the west to east. During the late afternoon tomorrow in the western half of the region - with the front passing through - temperatures are going to fall from the lower 40's into the mid to possibly lower 30's and this is going to turn the remaining rain showers into snow showers. Now here is the fun part...how much snow? Well I shouldn't say fun because it won't be much. I am not expecting that there is going to be much wrap around moisture which means that we're not going to be seeing that many snow showers in the western half of the region, so I wont be putting any accumulation on it.

Now how about the eastern half of the region? The low pressure isn't going to be that strong, so when the front comes through, it wont be that strong either. However there could be enough push of cooler air, gusty winds and maybe some temp differences that a little lake effect snow shower event could take place over the Erie area and phasing around Cleveland and Buffalo.

Cooler temps will try to take back the region towards the end of the work week, but the high pressure will then slip to the east and introduce warm advection into the region by the weekend. How warm of advection? Very warm. Though Sunday isn't in the forecast yet, looks like some rather temperatures (upwards to 20°-25° above average) will enter the region for Sunday.

I'll have another update coming up around 11.00 a.m., but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.