GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Not Bad...

17 January 2012

Not Bad...

Weather across the region is actually going to be a tad bit more active than I had orginally expected, and the warm advection towards the end of the week isn't looking as strong as it was this time yesteraday. Now, we're going to see a few series of low pressure waves push through the region over the course of today, but lets go ahead and take a look at the first system:

A low pressure centre ahead of an upper level trough is pushing out of the Plains and heading towards the region. This low pressure has a cold front with it and a second warm front with it. This second warm front is pushing those rain showers into the region once again, and this will also bump up those temperatures a little bit this morning. The low pressure is headed northeast, so we'll stay to the south of the centre throughout the day today, but that isn't entirely a bad thing (even though if we were on the north side of it we'd be getting about 3 inches of snow). The cold front is going to start pushing through the region starting early this aftenoon, and this front is going to be a little bit stronger than I had expected. The cold front will allow for highs in the western half of the region to occur, mainly this morning and early afternoon in the western half of the region, but once that front passes through, temps are going to quickly drop and this is going to be rather noticable. We're going to watch some wrap around moisture with this low pressure actually effect the region, and this is going to introduce snow showers into the region by the late afternoon in the west and the evening in the east.

Snow showers will be quick to taper in the west this evening, ending before any good accumulations can really start. So I did go with accumulations under an inch in the western half of the region tonight. Clouds will actually decrease briefly this evening as those temperatures fall further and tonight in the western half of the region we'll go with a low in the lower 20's. Now the eastern half of the region is going to watch that cold front push through, and this front is going to produce a brief lake effect snow showers event in that area. Erie will see it the best with about 1-3 inches of snow possible between tonight and tomorrow.

Tomorrow the lake effect snow event will end, mainly around Noon - so not a very long lasting system - and we're going to see a brief break in the weather with some cooler temperatures in the region.

Thursday however, we're going to watch a snow making system push into the region. This will produce snow, but as far as accumulations are concerned, it is a little questionable. I haven't put any totals on it yet, however I will do so around 7.30 a.m. this morning. Now this system isn't going to produce high amounts of snow, we'll generally go with about 1-3 inches of snow in the western half of the region, but the east could be a little bit different with the possibility of lake enhancement happening once again. This system too will pass through very quickly and by Thursday night it will be out of the western half of the region.

Then on Friday, we're going to watch yet another system get ready to move into the region, and this one will be bringing some snow showers with it and maybe a few scud showers, but I haven't put it in the forecasts yet.

I'll have another update coming up around 7.30 a.m. this morning where I'll give you a look at these three systems once again. I'll also be touching up those extended forecasts, mainly to adjust times and totals. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.