GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

04 January 2012

Noon Update

No major changes needed to the forecast at this point, things right now are looking like they are on track at this point, temperatures running just a degree or two lower than expected, but if we get a few rays of sun this afternoon those temperatures will make it into the lower 30's. Otherwise, right now we're just watching the short wave of low pressure race into the region from the northwest and this is where those clouds and scattered flurries are going to come from.

Short wave will quickly push out of the region tonight, leaving only a few flurries possible tomorrow morning in the eastern half of the region, but otherwise not a whole lot in the region to type about right now. No snow accumulations from this short wave will occur.

Upper level flow returns to the west tomorrow and then it will start a little bit of a tilt to the west-southwest tomorrow night and Friday morning. This tilt will be in response to an area of high pressure to our south which is going to build in and send some above normal temperatures into the region. With this will come warm, southernly advection and that will in turn push our temperatures back above average for the day Friday. Looking at highs to be in the mid to possibly upper 40's across the region ahead of our next system.

Our next system will come in the form of a low to our north, cold front and an upper level trough. The cold front is going to enter the region Friday evening and with it, will be some noticable differences...mainly in the temperatures. However, even the temperature difference isn't going to be that much...only about a 5 to 10° drop in most places by Saturday. The system will not have much moisture to work with, so do not expect a whole lot of precip to come out of this system. In fact, the only thing that might come out of this system could be some lake effect snow showers in the east. But lets type about that first for a moment:

As the cold front gets ready to push through the region on Friday evening/Saturday morning, it will usher in that cooler air...but the air wont be that cool enough. Doing some work with the 850-mb temps behind that front, there isn't a big difference between that level and the surface. In fact, the difference is only about 5-7° according to the GFS and NAM models. I am waiting for the CMC and ECMWF to come out, but those too will likely say the same thing. Looking at the winds...those too aren't looking all that favourable, but they are there nonetheless. Because the conditions will be somewhat supportive of lake effect snow, I will keep them in the forecast, but mind you there will be very little accumulation and the bands of snow that do form will be very light and widely scattered apart.

The weather will then return to normal...temperatures will try to stay around average, give or take a degree or two...but the latest models are hinting at something interesting. For those of you who remember me saying last night: Quiet in the world of weather normally isn't a good thing for those of you who like the fair weather.

The system is looking between Wednesday or Thursday...possibly early Friday. Precip with it isn't my main focus, but the temperatures are presenting an interesting focus this afternoon. A low pressure is going to run through the region ahead of a sharp upper level trough, while a low pressure system passes up the east coast towards this time as well. The system low pressure that will pass through the region is looking a bit more interesting at this point.

With this one, there could be a sharp cold front associated with some scattered snow showers (much like what we saw the other day) but the temperatures might be a little bit cooler. Now this system is still 7 days out, so I am going to do a little bit more work of it...and the calm weather for the next couple of days is going to make the forecast fun to forecast for. Again, this system looks mainly to be a temperature one, not so much a snow one. I'll have more information on later this afternoon.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! My next update will be at 3.30 p.m. so make sure that you check back for that.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.