GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Unusually Quiet...

04 January 2012

Unusually Quiet...

Unusually calm weather in store for the region over the next couple of days as the upper level trough is slipping out of the region this morning and taking the winter-like weather with it. However the weather today will give us one more shot and some wintry weather today, but not much.

A short wave is going to rush through the region today and this is going to produce widely scattered snow showers throughout the region, mainly after noon today. The snow showers are going to be light and I am not expecting any accumulation at all today. The short wave will push through the western half of the region this afternoon and this evening, and then it will move out of that area. It will make it to the eastern half of the region by this evening and that is actually going to help push up a few lake enhanced snow showers over in the Erie and Buffalo areas. However, no accumulation (if any it will be under an inch) from this system as it moves through and it will exit out of the eastern half of the region by late tonight.

Despite a few lingering flurries in the eastern half of the region tomorrow morning, we're going to be looking at a fairly calm day throughout the region tomorrow. Upper level flow turns from the northwest towards the west and an area of high pressure is going to develop and build to our south. This is going to push up warm air into the region and this warm advection will make temperatures go a little bit above average by the time tomorrow rolls around.

The warmest weather in the region will not occur until Friday, where highs will get into the mid to upper 40's for the region. This isn't going to last long however because another system is going to find its way into the region.

A cold front being followed by an upper level trough is going to push through the region on Friday - more than likely in the late afternoon/evening - and this system is going to be a little on the odd side. It wont have that much moisture to work with, so mainly just clouds will be in the western half of the region. When the front makes it into the eastern half of the region and passes through, there will be enough temperature differences between the 850-mb and the surface to support some lake effect snow showers in the eastern half of the region. However, if you look at the extended forecasts you'll see that the temperature difference isn't going to be that much, so the snow showers aren't going to be heavy so accumulations are going to be light. This lake effect event will happen between late Friday night and Saturday...possibly into Sunday, it just depends on the exact flow of the winds.

Temperatures are going to return to normal over the weekend and these temperatures will not be that cool despite the passage of the front. The weather will return to being oddly calm for this time of the year.

Now last evening I did do some work with the long long terms (the times that are ahead of the forecast period) and the though the models are in a little disagreement, some active weather looks like it is on the way for us in the region. How active? Well not record setting active, but better than what we've been seeing.

(GFS trying to show some active weather for Wednesday, 11 Jan). Remember, this is going to occur during the time of the year when winter is at its best...so this doesn't surprise. Now due to time, I am not going to go into detail about all this, but I will do so during the noon update.

I'll have the noon update as well as revised extended forecasts, so make sure you check back for those. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.