GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Update/Updated Christmas weather

20 December 2011

Update/Updated Christmas weather

No major changes to the daily forecasts or the extended forecasts at this time as things are still going mostly according to plan. Looking at the stationary front to our south which is trying to slowly move northward as a warm front – it will do so more this afternoon. The low pressure centre is still down in the Plains along with the upper trough and those are both going to head towards the region. Day will start off in the west with snow showers and a little wintry mix, however I am expecting that by around Noon the majority of the region could be seeing just plain old rain showers with a few of the northern spots still holding onto some light snow showers.

Once the front passes, it’ll almost weaken in a way and the precip will take a brief break in the region for this evening – mainly – and then it will re-group and redevelop in the region in the region as just rain. The eastern half of the region will be about 12-hours behind for the rain, but in general we’re all going to see the same thing tomorrow. Temperatures are also going to be above average with highs nearing 45° in most places.

Low pressure centre passes through the region on Wednesday afternoon (evening for the east) and this is going to start calming down the precip in the region for a little bit. The eastern half of the region, might not be as fortunate for a break with lingering lake enchanced rain showers and eventually snow showers happening as the upper low scoots over that half of the region.

Well, we had our hopes a little bit this week for a white Christmas, things may change a little bit. Now, more than likely (knock on wood) we aren’t going to get rain, that is for sure. A pesky high pressure looks like it will be in the way come Friday, and this high pressure will keep the temps cool, but it could block the precip from entering the region.

Now this is only a marginal possibility, as we might still be seeing some snow flurries in the region. The wild card will be the intensity of the upper low and where exactly it goes while its in the Plains. While we are on the topic of wild cards, Saturday looks to be a little on the questionable for some of the recent models, but Sunday is a little bit different.

Models this morning are agreeing on the presense of a low pressure centre on Saturday night/Sunday morning near the region. However the presense of the high pressure behind it is still in debate. Right now, I am leaning more so towards the ECMWF and the GFS than I am the CMC, for the CMC seems to present a much weaker upper trough while the preceeding two are in more of an agreement. Also, the GFS is showing signs of a more seasonal pattern whereas the CMC is just confused.

The eastern half of the region right now is looking for a mainly guarenteed white Christmas as lake effect snow could effect you guys on Friday and Saturday, that will have be forecasted closely this afternoon.

Again, a rainy Christmas is just about out of the question, right now the main question is going to be whether it’ll be chilly and snowy, or chilly and cloudy from the high pressure. Still have about 5 days left to forecast with this system, so I will be doing some work on that this afternoon.

There will be no 10.00 a.m. update this morning, as I will be doing a lot of forecasting at that time. My next extended forecast revision will be around Noon today along with an Update post, which will allow for a more accurate forecast. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.