GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still an Active Week

20 December 2011

Still an Active Week

Upper level low moving through Oklahoma right now and that is allowing the low pressure centre to follow right along side of it. Now remember, we’re going to be mainly on the warm side of this system (except for this morning as we’re still waiting for the warm front to arrive). The weather forecasts are going to be rather straight forward after this morning, so expect those forecasts to become a bit more detailed by Noon.

Right now we’re on the cool side of that stationary front which is why some of us in the western half of the region are waking up to some snow showers. These are going to switch over to all rain by this afternoon as that stationary front becomes a slow moving warm front.

The low pressure which is down in the central Plains right now and this is going to continue to move towards the region. As it moves towards the region, it’ll be causing that front to move up northward as a warm front which is where the rain showers are going to be, and then once that front passes through the region, it will start to lose a bit of its energy and allow the rain showers to taper off briefly this evening.

The low pressure will approach the region tomorrow and this is where the best rain showers will be in the region. The heaviest of the rain as well, although I am not expecting that we’ll see many totals above a quarter inch. The low pressure will start to exit the region tomorrow afternoon and evening and the upper level trough will cross through the region as well. This might allow for a little bit of unstable air to keep some lingering rain and possibly some snow showers in the region, otherwise Thursday will be mainly cloudy across the region. Some lake effect rain and snow could develop along the eastern half of the region, but that wont be a major event. I am not expecting that there will be much snow accumulation on Friday in the eastern half of the region.

What I am going to be focusing on is something that we’ve been waiting a while for in the region. We’re going to watch an upper level trough come out of the central and/or northern Plains towards the end of the work week and this is going to head towards the region, producing a surface low pressure with it. This low pressure will cross into central Ohio and this might bring enough a cool air that we could see some snow showers in the region. How strong the low pressure centre will be I am still working on and this system will effect us on Christmas Eve day. This wont be an accumulation maker, but it could be enough that we’ll be seeing a white Christmas. As of right now, I am going to be keeping the chances of a white Christmas in the region at a 60%, and I am going to do further forecasting this morning so I might be upping that number.

I’ll keep you updated as always, there will be a brief 7.30 a.m. update and the forecasts will be revised around that time as well. My next Facebook update will be at 3.30 p.m. this afternoon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.