GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still a busy week

21 December 2011

Still a busy week

Rain showers starting to taper off a bit earlier than I had anticipated this morning as the low pressure centre gets near to the Fort Wayne area. Looking at the centre of low pressure to be around 1003-mbs this morning with the warm front extending northward into the Detroit area. Temperatures below the front are warmer than normal, hanging around close to 50° in a lot of places.

Low pressure centre will exit the western half of the region this afternoon and allow for a brief high pressure to develop in the south and affect the western half of the region. This high pressure is going to keep the weather calm for overnight tonight and tomorrow morning, but we’re going to watch another surface low pressure get kicked up down in Texas and this is going to head towards the region.

Low pressure will deepen quickly, but it will stay to the south of the region as it moves northward. This low pressure will have a little warm advection to it, so the temperatures won’t be dramatically cooler tomorrow in the region. The system gets within range of us late tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow evening and this is going to start introducing rain showers and possibly a few snow showers into the region during the evening – the precip will mainly move south to north.

Tomorrow night, that low pressure is going to pull in cooler air from a high pressure in the Plains and this is going to start mixing the rain showers in the west into snow showers and then scattered snow showers will be likely in the western half of the region tomorrow night after midnight. Eastern half of the region will still be hanging onto some rain showers overnight, but by sunrise Friday morning those rain showers will have fully converted to snow showers in the east.

The snow fall totals from this system aren’t going to be much at all overnight tomorrow night and really I am expecting that a trace of snow will be likely for the Toledo area, maybe a half in Cleveland and possibly an inch in the Erie area. Fort Wayne might not see that much mixing because the precip will have been close to exiting that area when it turns over – so we’ll go for a trace of snow accumulation in the Fort Wayne area overnight Thursday night and Friday morning.

High pressure returns from the southwest and this is going to keep the weather calm across the western half of the region for Friday afternoon – despite a few lingering snow flurries in the above mentioned in the morning. Highs are going to get a little above 32° so some of that snow will start to melt, there might be a few breaks in the clouds during the afternoon as well, so that is going to allow for the little snow to melt.

A weak low pressure will pass of the north of the region on Friday night and Saturday morning, and this is going to bring a trailing cold front across the region. This cold front will be fairly dry and it won’t produce much snow fall…except for a little lake effect in the eastern half of the region. Again the lake effect event that does take place wont be anything that much, and that will give places like Erie about 1-2 inches of snow fall accumulation – so nothing much in all honesty.

High pressure returns for the end of the weekend on Christmas Day and this will keep the regional with fairly seasonal temperatures.

I’ll be revising those forecasts over the next hour, so make sure that you check back for those. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.