Weather across the region will start to get interesting towards the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. Looking at a system of its own on tonight/early tomorrow morning and then a high pressure ridge will briefly build into the region yet again. This isn't going to last long as we're going to watch our next system get ready to move into the region and this will be bringing a somewhat "change of season" over the course of the next couple of days.
REGIONAL NEAR TERM (THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON):
A weak system is going to pass to the north of the region, and I am going to try to keep the region fairly dry from this. However, I did give Detroit area some precip chances starting this morning. That system is going to push through, try to, quickly, however the parent low pressure system is going to stall out over lower Michigan late this afternoon. This low though will introduce precip chances into the region as it gets ready to pull its warm front across the region. I did give everybody a chance for rain/snow showers for late this afternoon, but what does form will be light and very widely scattered. I am not expecting much from this portion of the forecast.
REGIONAL SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY):
Tonight, with the stalling of the low over lower Michigan, we can expect the warm front to continue its journey through the region. It will have rain/snow showers ahead of it, but really the main feature is going to be rain showers. The only snow showers that do form will be towards the start of the system. The warm front will pass through at a weird time, which is going to cause for overnight lows to occur before midnight through the region. I have Buffalo steady temperatures, but I gave most other places a degree or two drop. The precip will exit after midnight, but the clouds will remain in the region as the next system gets ready to approach the region. Around this time is when we can expect to see the low pressure over central Michigan get absorbed by another low pressure system coming out of the Plains.
Tomorrow, the rain showers are going to begin more than likely as snow in the early morning hours tomorrow and that is going to quickly turn over to all rain by the time the mid to late morning rolls around. Temperatures are going to be a little too mild for snow accumulations, so expect it to just be ugly outside tomorrow morning. Rain showers will become increasingly likely in the eastern half of the rgion as the morning goes on and I'd say that by around Noon looks as though the entire region will have have rain showers somewhere int he region. Highs tomorrow will be fairly mild compared to normal this time of the year as the warm front will have passed through and risen them up a little bit. The precip however will play the game of change over late tomorrow afternoon as the low pressure centre nears the region ahead of the upper trough and drags its cold front through the region. Now some overrunning with the cool air may occur, which is why I am thinking that some of these rain showers will be changing over to snow showers in the late afternoon/early evening tomorrow in the western half of the region. I do not expect that much accumulation will come of this, but it is still going to be something to keep an eye on. I am going to watch those temperatures for tomorrow as highs tomorrow might occur in the morning, not afternoon.
Tomorrow night the low pressure centre gets ready to push through the eastern half of the region, and then drags it cold front further to the east. This front will allow for all forms of rain to turn over to a wintry mix briefly and then into snow showers. Just how long the transitional period itself will take, I am still debating, but I am feeling as though it'll be a quick turn over, so I am keeping wintry mix out of the forecasts at this point. The low will pull the remaining flurries out of the western half of the region tomorrow evening and then a ridge of high pressure is going to start building into the west, clearing the skies out and introducing a near roller coaster of temperatures. The eastern half of the region will have to hang on to some snow showers overnight tomorrow and into Saturday morning as that front may have enough cool air to create a brief lake effect snow event. At this point, I am not really expecting any accumulations from the lake effect snow, I might add an inch in the Erie area, but this isn't going to be much if it happens. I will be keeping an eye on the 850-mb temperatures for the eastern half of Lake Erie and wondering if any mixing of it will come down to the surface provided their is ample moisture behind the front to support a small lake effect event.
Saturday, we're giong to see a high pressure try to dominate the regional weather for atleast a day, but the high isn't going to overstay its welcome. The big thing about the high is that it is going to stay to our south and then slowly slide off to the east on Saturday and this is going to help usher in some warmer air into the region, not hot but probably low to mid 40's across the region Saturday with mostly clear skies. 500-mb heights begin to put us in the northwestern flow on Saturday afternoon and thus allowing for the high to stay to the south. But the break will not last long at all.
REGIONAL MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY):
The mid term section of the forecast starts off a little interesting with a ridge over the region. This isn't going to be all it appears to be as a "strong" (for lack of a better word) low pressure centre develops ahead of a nice sized, and sharp, upper level trough coming down from the Plains.
Saturday night, the ridging of upper level winds will be over the region, thus supporting further warm advection to enter the region ahead of the next low pressure system. Appears to be a warm front showing up on the models, looks as though the warm front will push through the region at this time, pushing temperatures back into the mid 30's for overnight lows in the region. Weather is still going to be fairly dry across the region, however the clouds will be on the increase and I might add a chance for rain showers in the western half of the region towards sunrise at this time. Otherwise, this will just be a calm period of the forecast.
Sunday gets interesting though with the upper level trough digging deep into the Plains and the surface low pressure deepening further. The upper level trough is going to start bowing out and heading towards the region, and with it the surface low pressure will be dragged ahead of it. I am going to start off the forecasts - if I have not already - for Sunday morning with rain/snow showers developing in the morning as 540-mb, as well as 850-mb, temperatures might just be a little too warm to support all snow at this time. However, it is looking like the cool air will start to push out ahead of the precip, and so I am going to transition all the precip over to snow by Sunday afternoon. I am also going to keep an eye on the winds, looking at tight surface isobars as well as a very sharp and tight upper level trough - might feel the need to mention "breezy" conditions in all locations for this time period. GFS is running a little fast with this system, CMC runs through normally with the time, however the two are in a little disagreement with the exact location of the low pressure centre at this time, but both do agree on the cold front which is the main focus at this point. Will work closely with CMC and ECMWF for this period of the forecast when it concerns timing, will use GFS for apparant tracks. Not expecting to use NAVY quite yet, but it is in agreement with the rest, and I might check of DGEX later in the morning.
Sunday night, here we go, the cold front slams through the region, dropping temperatures and making the forecasts a little tricky with precip. I am expecting that I will keep the seccond half of Sunday night dry in the west as the front looks to be a good moisture ender, that is until it gets over to the lake. The front does have a nice temperature drop behind it, and I am expecting that overnight lows on Sunday night are going to drop nicely. A good lake effecr snow event is looking to shape up in the eastern half of the region, and this could have decent snow fall accumulations...however the event will not be a 12-hour event, it could end up being about 24-36 hours. I am going to wait for the 09Z SREF and the 12Z models to come out before I do further forecasting on that.
540-mb line on Monday morning shows cool air heading all the way into Tennessee (GFS) and the low pressure further deepening. The question is going to be whether or not the upper level trough/low will stall out over Ontario which is going to keep us cooler with some unsettled weather. I will be keeping the western half of the region with Mostly cloudy through until I figure out just what the upper low is going to do. Will place temperatures in the western half of the region in the 20's for a high.
REGIONAL LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT):
I am going to wait for the 12Z models to come out before I do any revising of the extended forecasts:
Monday Night, at this point, I am not expecting any single digit temperatures, but I will keep close tabs on NW Pennsylvania as they will get down to the lower teens. I am wanting to drop the chances for snow across the region, however I feel though that continuous northwest winds off of Lake Erie and over onto Erie will make it hard for those snow showers to lessen up. So I decided to put scattered snow showers in many places.
Tuesday, I will keep temperatures in the region below normal with highs in the 20's yet again. Unsure of any lake effect snow at this point, so I will keep it in the forecasts just to be safe. I will keep the clouds in the western half of the region at this point as well as I feel that the upper level low might still hang around.
I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.
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