REGIONAL NEAR TERM (TODAY):Low pressure system exiting the region this morning, will allow for a ridge of high pressure to develop in the region this afternoon. A few lingering rain showers out in the eastern half of the region this morning, they will hang around for a good portion of the day today, but they will be gone by the evening. Looking at warm advection to begin to take place this afternoon in the western half of the region as the SW flow of the upper winds takes over. Will keep temperatures in the low to mid 40's across the region today, might adjust it a tad depending on what the clouds do later this afternoon. Otherwise today will not be a very active in the region, however focus will turn towards our next system which is going to push us down into January like conditions - appropiate for this time of the year.
REGIONAL SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT):
Tonight, not much going on the region as the ridge of high pressure continues to move through the region and slide to the east. I will be watching as our low pressure system and associated upper level trough get ready to enter the region. For now, I am going on a limb and keeping tonight dry, but it will be close.
Tomorrow, the weather starts going through a good change. Looking at the low pressure system to stay to the north of the region, but the cold front will push ahead slightly from the low pressure centre and this is going to work in our favor. Rain showers will be generally light and widely scattered ahead of the front and it will pass through the western half of the region in the morning.
Because of this, I will keep the highs for tomorrow in the western half during the morning hours, and then we'll gradually drop them throughout the afternooon. The rain showers are going to push ahead of the front and then we're going to see the upper level trough enter the region. This upper trough along with the moisture around the low pressure centre will aid for the lingering rain showers to quickly turn over to snow showers in the western half of the region. The snow showers in the western half of the region will be generally light and widely scattered, so I am not going to worry much about accumulating snow. I am also going to add windy conditions in the forecasts as the pressure gradients are going to tighten up and the NWS is hinting at a wind advisory. Eastern half of the region will continue to see widely scattered rain showers throughout the day and then into the afternoon and late afternoon the rain shwoers over that way will turn to snow showers.Tomorrow night, the front will have cleared the entire region and the upper level trough will have made its presense known. Went with scattered snow showers throughout the western half of the region at this time, and will add windy conditions in a little bit. The eastern half of the region might see a brief break in the precip, but the front is going to have some much cooler associated with it and with the NW flow blowing over the lake, looks like lake effect snow showers will begin to develop. The snow showers might even be heavy at times. I am not expecting that the real snow will show up on Sunday night, it will more than likely come just a few hours later. So for now, I did not give Erie and Buffalo or Cleveland any snow fall totals for this time, but I might be adding a possible inch depending on how I feel later this morning. Winds will also pick up in the eastern half of the region as the gradient that way tightens up as well, so will add breezy conditions to the forecast for that area a little later on.
Monday, the weather becomes even better as that upper level trough will have dominance over the region and we might even see a weak front move down from Michigan and make the weather in the region. Went with scattered snow showers in the western half of the region, although whether those will be lake enhanced or directly responsible from the upper trough is going to be somethign to keep an eye on...either way looks like snow. The lake effect snow showers in the esatern half of the region will have just started to get good and with the winds blowing the way they are, looks like a good chance that decent accumulations will begin to take place in the region. Went with 1-3 inches of snow between Cleveland and Buffalo, but I might up tha a little bit as temperatures will be low and the snow showers will be good. It will be cloudy across the region in part to the upper trough so I might drop temperatures down a little bit as well.
Monday night, looks like temperatures are going to be rather cool, probably the lowest we've seen all season, and a second front might even pass through the region at this time as well. Still keeping a chance of snow showers in the westm, but at this time the winds in the west will have started to die down a little bit. The lake effect snow showers in the eastern half of the region will continue and I did give another 1-3 inches of snow fall likely during this time, but again I might up that a little bit once the new charts come out. The winds will be flowing out of the NW so I see no need to raise the temperatures any. Looks like the further inland in the eastern half of the region will see the coolest of temperatures. However, big question for the west is going to be how much those clouds are going to effect the overnight lows. For now, I will not change them, but I will look further into that. I will also start to lower the chances for snow showers in the western half of the region as conditions that are going to be responsible for them will start to exit the region. The upper level trough is also going to start to slide out of the region a little bit, so this will add to my lessening of the snow chances in the western half of the region.
REGIONAL MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY):
Tuesday, decided to pull the snow shower chances out of the western half of the region by the afternoon as the trough will have basically exited that area and the return of calmer weather enters over there. The snow showers in the eastern half of the region are going to start tapering off a little bit as the winds will gradually shift a tad bit and they will lessen up as well. Still holding onto the snow showers throughout the day in the eastern half of the region, however they will be lesser and lighter. I will continue to keep the entire region under cloudy skies however as the presense of the upper trough will still be around across the entire region.
Tuesday night, things begin to quiet down even more in the region, and the lake effect snow showers in the eastern half of the region are going to lessen up even more. The winds are going to calm down even more and they will continue to change their direction a little bit from the NW. Upper level trough in the eastern half of the region will still be effecting the temperatures without a doubt, so mainly for inland areas around Erie and Buffalo I went with temperatures down around 10° for an overnight night low, but in the western half of the region where the effects of the upper trough wont be as strong, I simply went with overnight lows down into the mid teens.
Wednesday, I tried to lighten the snow showers chances in the eastern half of the region even further, so I gave them "possible" in the Erie area. I am thinking that conditions will still be able to support to snow fall, but the snow showers wont be as heavy nor as frequent over there. I do not think that much accumulating snow is going to take place during this time.
REGIONAL LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT):
Wednesday night, I am going to bring an end to the snow shower chances in the eastern half of the region as the upper ridge begins to return into the region and the flow turns from NW to the sW. Temperatures wont be as cool during this time, part because of clouds and the other part because of the SW flow of the winds. I will keep the entire regio under cloudy skies still at this time.
Thursday, a calm day in the region as the ridge of high pressure begins to set up in the region and southernly advection starts to take place. I did decide to up temperatures during this time, might even up them a little bit more later this morning depending on how things look. The region will still be under mostly cloudy skies during this period, but I am starting to think that adding a few breaks in the clouds during this period wouldn't be a bad idea.
Thursday night, calm. Mainly just clouds and some cool temperatures, but the temperatures are going to be generally warmer compared to what we will have seen only a few days earlier. Upper trough pulls out of the region during this time, and the southernly advection from the ridge starts to take over the regional weather. Mostly cloudy throughout the region once again during this time period.
I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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