REGIONAL NEAR TERM (TODAY):
Upper level trough sitting over the eastern Plains this morning will move into the region later. A surface low pressure running along side of the upper trough is located in Iowa this morning and this low pressure has the rain showers with it. The rain showers will move into the region from SW to NE as the day progresses, Fort Wayne and Toledo will get them first, and then the rest of the region will start to see them around Noon today. Rain showers will be generally light and widely scattered, save for a narrow band of moderate rain showers extending from the centre of the low into the Cincinnati. As the afternoon progresses the centre of the low pressure will near the region. Some warm advection left over from the warm front will fill the region today, but the clouds will hinder temperatures from going much past 40°.
REGIONAL SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY):
Tonight, the low pressure centre will enter the region, bringing with it some more rain showers. The rain showers will again be generally light and widely scattered. Rain showers will begin to gradually taper off after midnight tonight in the western half of the region as the low pressure brings a weak front through the region. This cold front will not have much of a temperature contrast with it, and it might end up being nothing more than a surface trough. Regardless, the rain showers will continue on in the eastern half of the region tonight as the low pressure centre will not have past through that area yet. Temperatures will attempt to drop slightly behind the low, but we'll mainly go with low to mid 30's across the region. There isn't going to be the mixing that I was expecting, looks like the cool air wont really make it in time. A ridge of high pressure will attempt to start setting up in the western half of the region late and this will allow for a little decreasing of clouds. The eastern half of the region will hold on to the clouds.
Saturday, the ridge of high pressure will dominate the western half of the region with slightly above normal temperatures from the SW surface flow, but the low pressure and weak front will have past through the eastern half of the region during the morning. Despite the passage of the front, the NW winds will try to blow off the lake, but there wont be much cool air, so we'll go with some spotty lake enhanced rain showers in the eastern half of the region, mainly in the morning and early afternoon. Didn't really go with likely chances in the east, will have to wait and see.
Saturday night, things will quiet down a little bit, but the ridge of high pressure will begin to slowly slide away as the surface high to the south pulls further to the east. The warm advection will still be taking. We'll start to see a gradual increase of clouds in the western half of the region as the next low pressure system nears the region. We'll be seeing the effects of the strong low pressure in the northern Plains around this time - the clouds. In the eastern half of the region, we'll go with mostly cloudy skies to some off and on clouds, but in general if there is a clearing period it will not last very long. Late at this time, we'll start to see the cold front nearing the region from the NW. By around midnight the majority of the region will be mostly cloudy. Rain showers trying to enter the region towards sunrise, but for now I tried to keep the majority of the region dry during this time period.
Sunday, the cold front and its parent low pressure system will be nearing close to the region. I gradually increased precipitation chances from the west to east over the course of this time. Precip will start off as rain showers as warm air tries to claim one last position ahead of the cold front, but the low pressure is going to be pulling some much cooler air from the upper level trough right behind it. The cold front will start to pull ahead of the low pressure around this time as well, and this is going to allow for the low pressure direct precip to sit in the cooler air. When the front passes, we'll notice a gradual drop of temperatures and then the precip will take a very brief and then when it returns by the late morning we're going to see the mixing start up. As of now, I am not expecting sleet or freezing rain, but I am going to put the rain/snow shower mix in the forecasts for everybody as there will be a transitional time - naturally. By the afternoon, temperatures in the western half of the region will be cool enough that I simply put snow showers in for the second of Saturday. The eastern half of the region at this time will only begin to see the mixing, and it wont be until late Sunday afternoon that it becomes all snow. The cold front is going to be the main focus, as this will begin to start up a lake effect event. Temperatures will still be a little too warm at this point to support much accumulation, so I didn't give any snow fall totals for the region at this time.
REGIONAL MID TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT):
Sunday night, this is when things become a bit more interesting across the region. The cold front will have pushed through the region and turned the wind all the way to the NW. We'll start to see some breezy conditions as the pressure gradient both at the surface and the 500-mb becomes rather tight around the upper level trough. Now the upper level torugh at this time is going to start to play a game of "hanging around" and we're going to notice it rather quickly. The upper level trough will have an embedded upper low in it, and this upper low is going to take its time moving across southern Ontario. With the NW flow of the upper trough over the region, we're going to start to see some much cooler air filter into the region during this time period. With the upper level trough hanging over the region, I do expect that it will continue the snow showers across the region. The snow showers in the western half of the region are going to be scattered, and maybe Fort Wayne could be lucky enough and see some snow that is involved with the Lake Michigan area. Sounds a little extreme, but the winds might support it along with the 850-mb levels. Now the eastern half of the region is also going to be seeing their own excitment as the NW flow of the upper winds along with the good difference in temperatures is going to start to kick up a lake effect snow event. At this time, no places in the eastern half of the region have any snow fall total forecasts yet as I have no finished with the models, but I can tell you that it will be a decent one, so if you do not have the snow shovels dusted off yet...get them dusted off because you're going to need them.
Monday, the upper trough will be pulling in more cool air into the region, and this is really going to give us those chilly and winter-like temperatures across the region. What a way to start the month of January. But I am gradually lessening up the snow chances in the west, but I am keeping the lake effect snow showers going in the eastern half of the region at this time. More accumulating snow in the eastern half of the region will be likely at this time. Again, no totals yet I have to finish the analysis. Skies across the region will also remain cloudy at this time, which is going to help keep those regional temperatures down low.
Monday night, the same as what we've been seeing. The upper trough will actually start gradually sliding out of the western half of the region, but I am going to keep the skies mainly cloudy still with much cooler temperatures. The eastern half of the region might start to see a little bit lessening up of the lake effect snow showers, but I am going to keep them as scattered and start to mix flurries into the forecasts as well. Looking for overnight lows across the region to really drop as the northwest flow of the upper winds and the surface will be good enough to introduce some low teens into the region at this time. As far as winds are concerned, I figured that I will not mention them in the forecast for this time.
I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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