Low pressure centre trying to get organized down in the southern states this afternoon as the upper level low is finally starting to move a little bit ahead of the upper level trough. The surface low pressure will stay just to the south and east of the region, however the upper level low will pass over the region. Snow showers are going to be likely, but how much snow? Lets go ahead and type about it for a moment:
In the western half of the region, late tonight the low pressure will be to the south, however the precip shield with it will be decently sized and near to the region. The 540-mb line is still going to be off to the west late tonight so we’ll just go with a rain/snow mix starting around 3.00 a.m. and taking us into the morning tomorrow. Tomorrow morning however the freezing line in the upper air will be close enough to the western half of the region that gradually – from west to east – the rain showers will start mixing with snow. Here is the catch however, how high will the temps be tomorrow afternoon? For now, we’ll just go with low to mid 30’s in the region, so that means the snow will have a hard time sticking during its early and final stages. However, at times the temps will hover below freezing which will be enough to aide in the accumulation. I am thinking that the majority of the accumulation will happen mid morning tomorrow as the 540-mb line crosses into the region.
In all, places like Fort Wayne, Toledo and Detroit can expect to see about 1-2 inches of snow fall from this system by the time all is said and done tomorrow afternoon. A high pressure will build into the western half of the region tomorrow afternoon and into the evening and this is going to calm you guys down for the most part.
For the eastern half of the region, especially Buffalo, things aren’t going to go over as well for you guys. The precip wont arrive until mid or even late tomorrow morning and that means that you guys are going to have wait not only for the precip to arrive…but also wait for the precip to turn to snow. The precip transition will not happen until late tomorrow afternoon in the Buffalo area, and that means that you guys will basically see rain for tomorrow afternoon until it turns over to snow showers in the evening. Buffalo, between tomorrow evening and tomorrow night you’ll only be picking up about an inch of snow.
Cleveland and Erie, you’ll fair better than Buffalo as the precip will begin early tomorrow morning as a rain/snow mix and then tomorrow afternoon – probably right around noon – it will turn over to all snow. Some of the snow showers could be moderate so I’ll keep you guys with 1-3 inches of snow (locally 4 inches because you know how the lake works). The ending though for the east will be a tad bit different than that of the western half of the region. There is a chance that some lingering lake effect snow could take place in the eastern half of the region tomorrow night and through Wednesday morning as the system will not have cleared you guys yet. Why? Because that low pressure is going to hook a sharp turn to the northeast late tomorrow afternoon before it heads off to New England, and depending on where this turn happens, could determine if you guys will pick up any extra snow fall. However, of the extra snow that you get, we’ll keep it light and only around an additional inch.
So a little bit of rain in the west before the system goes to all snow, and this will be the first actual accumulating snow where we’ll see totals above an inch in places like Toledo. Fort Wayne, you’ve already some snow earlier in the season, but the more the merrier.
Again, a low to develop to our south and stay to our south and east tomorrow, however this will keep snow showers – and a little mixing – in the region starting late tonight in the west and going possibly into Wednesday morning for the east. Snow fall totals will be light, only about 1-3 inches in most places. Highs tumble down a little bit on Thursday, I’ll type more about that later. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.
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