Afternoon Update

The weather across the region is calm for now, but it will get rather interesting within the next 12-18 hours as our system is starting to take shape and will head towards the region.

The upper level low pressure is coming out of the Plains – though still a little slowly – this afternoon and it will pick up some speed as the evening goes on. We also have that upper trough moving through the northern Plains right now and the upper low will try to stay ahead of the trough; however it wont work. The trough will sort of slam into the backside of the upper low while the upper low produces a surface low down to our south. The surface low will move northeast towards New England, remaining south and east of the region, it will be able to produce some precip for us in the region.

The precip will start off as rain and possibly a wintry mix in the western half of the region late tonight until the temperatures drop a little further. Once the temperatures drop a little further, expect that the cool air will be brought over from the trough and turn the precip into all snow. This transition in the west will happen tomorrow afternoon, and for the east it will occur late afternoon/early evening. Now the best chances for precip are going to be right around this transitional phase in the western half of the region, which means that the snow chances will fall in the likely category in the west.

How about the eastern half of the region? Well the low pressure system wont have turned the rain over into snow until late tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening, which means that you – especially in Buffalo – in the east will see slightly warmer temperatures and rain showers starting late tomorrow morning and lasting through the afternoon. Once the sun goes down and that low pulls in the cooler air, that rain will quickly turn to snow and that will be good enough for some snow in that half of the region.

The eastern half of the region has one more surprise with them, and that is the possibility for a brief and minor lake effect snow event. Look for some cooler air to be brought over the much warmer waters and towards the end of this system effecting you guys, there could be a transition from snow to lake enhanced snow which could mean an additional inch for you in the Snow Belt.

I am still going to keep the snow fall totals at 1-3 inches in the western half of the region, but I might bump it up just a tad depending on how I feel this evening. Otherwise, the forecast will remain the same throughout the region. Again, no major changes needed to forecast at this point, it looks like that for the next couple of hours we’ll play the “wait and see” game with the weather charts. I’ll have a brief update coming up this evening, however I’ll be touching up those extended forecasts as well. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.