GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Starting Up...

26 December 2011

Starting Up...

Things are mainly going as planned this morning across the region as the sun is starting to burn out the clouds and that ridge of high pressure is setting in. Temperatures are going to get into the lower 40’s today in parts of the region and depending on where the clouds are this afternoon, some of us might get into the mid 40’s, but I am not thinking that will happen in many places.

Our upper level low is trying to get out of the southern Plains this morning and that will start to head towards the region within the next few hours. As it moves, it will kick up a surface low pressure down in the southern states and that low will remain to the east and south of the forecast region, but it will be close enough to help give us some precip.

The upper low is going to try to race ahead of an upper level trough that is presently over Montana right now and this trough is going to catch up with the low and they will work together…in a way. Looking for the first chance at actual snow accumulation in the western half of the region to occur overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.

Now as far as snow fall totals are concerned…not very high, but better than nothing. Most of the region will be seeing anywhere between 1 and 3-inches, with places near Cleveland and Erie receiving the possibility of 4-inches if a few local heavy snow showers get in the mix. So here is how this system is going to develop:

A low pressure centre will develop down in Louisiana/Mississippi area (exact location doesn’t really matter a whole lot right now, but it’ll be on the border) and this low pressure center will quickly deepen with the aid of the upper low. The upper low will pass the region, but the surface low will not go over the region. The low pressure deepens and stays to the east and south of the region, but it will start to pull around some cool air from the retreating high as well as the trough behind it. However, this wont happen until after it reaches the region, so places in the west will start off rain or a light wintry mix and then late tonight/early tomorrow morning, the cool air will have been dragged in from the west and that will start to turn those rain/snow showers into all snow showers.

The snow will be fairly light with a couple moderate clusters getting into the mix. Lows tonight will only be around 30° and highs tomorrow are only going to be in the mid 30’s, so this snow will have troubles accumulating all around. Looks like a good portion of the snow will melt on contact, but do not worry the western half of the region will still be able to pick up an inch or two from this system before all is said and done.

The low pressure and the upper level pass through and head over to the eastern half of the region. This is where the forecast starts to get a little tricky – a bit more than preferred. The precip in the east will have started, but the question is going to be when exactly the cool air will make it into the east. It will probably happen after noon tomorrow, and that is going to hinder some of those snow fall totals a little, so I am going to adjust them slightly. Rain/snow over there will turn over to all snow by the time the evening rolls around.

The low will hook a sharp turn for the New England area and that is going to allow for the low to pull moisture and some additional snow showers over the lake and throw them onto the eastern half of the region on Wednesday. Little accumulation will come from that as the snow that does show up will be light and the temps could still be a tad too warm…but not by much.

For the western half of the region tomorrow afternoon/evening a high pressure will be working on building into the region so that will calm the western half down noticably by Wednesday.

I’ll have an update coming up around Noon, where I’ll give a thourough run down on the system and what we can expect from it. I’ll also be revising those extended forecasts according, but right now, I am just waiting for the charts to update. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.