Our low pressure that helped give us all that precip last night is moving the front out of the region right now…slowly, but surely. Look for some lingering precip to still hang on to the eastern half of the region this morning, and then some left over precip will be around this afternoon in that part of the region.A weak high pressure is trying to build in for the western half of the region this morning and that will attempt to keep the weather calm, but it will sort of fail at that job. We can expect to see a weak disturbance push through the western half of the region late this afternoon and into the evening and this will end up affecting a good portion of the region by tomorrow morning. Look for mainly widely scattered and light snow showers to be associated with this, otherwise it’ll be mostly cloudy.
So how are the rain fall records for the region doing this morning? To break the old yearly precip record, Toledo needs about an inch more of precip. Toledo has gotten 46.78 inches of precip this year, and they just 1.06 inches more to break the old record from 1950. Cleveland is about 8.30 inches above the record, so you have nothing to worry about. Erie still needs about 8-inches.
Tomorrow we’ll watch yet another high pressure try to affect the regional weather ahead of the next system that will effect us. An upper level low will come out of the southeast and pass just to the south of the region and it will help a surface low pressure move up the New England coast. This will provide as a distraction if focused too much upon because an upper level trough is going to move down from the northern Plains around the same time.
This upper level trough will become rather defined on Thursday as it tries to move through the region. The high pressure will rush to the south of the region and that will allow for the clouds to start rolling back into the region as this upper level trough moves towards the region on Thursday night.
(GFS look at the weather for Friday night). This upper level trough will kick up a disturbance which will produce some light and widely scattered snow showers once again for the western half of the region. The eastern half of the region will get this as well, but you all in that area will have another special gift on the way…Lake Effect.
As the upper level trough moves through the region, the ridge of high pressure will build in behind it (it has no choice...meteorology physics). This high pressure ridge will clear the skies out and allow for a surface high to build in the western half of the region on Friday night and Saturday (possibly Friday morning depending on the extent of the clouds). The trough will then make it into the snow belt area…and with its surface high behind it, this will kick winds from the northwest – chilly winds mind you as temperatures are going to be chilly – and that is going to blow over the warmer water of Lake Erie on Saturday afternoon. As far as snow fall totals, I haven’t put any up because I want to see how extensive the snow coverage will be first…I should know that answer late this morning or early this afternoon.
Now do the lack of active weather in the region today, there wont be a 10.00 a.m., but the extended forecasts will be updated at 10.00 a.m. however. This brings me to my next point: some changes that you’ll be seeing in the way forecasts are done.
As you may know, here I use the terms “possible” and “likely” followed up “scattered” “stray” and “widely scattered” these terms will remain the same, and I’ll be posting a definition of those terms later this morning to make sure you understand them. Unlike the summer time, where lows are easy to forecast, winter is a lot more difficult. The lows that happen in the winter are much needy and fragile so they require a ton of forecasting (even for something as simple as a disturbance). You’re going to start to notice (especially like 2 days prior to a “winter system”) that update will start to become fewer but more detailed. These update will serve as general synopsis’ rather than lectures. The extended forecasts will provide the basics needed to plan your days, but the updates will be strickly on the system (not present weather) and this will only be happening in the event that a system requires heavy forecasts…which none of them do right now.
Another thing you’ll be noticing is an increase in the usage of computer models. Now computer models are basically short cuts taken in overall forecasting…they comprise of several equations and historical scenarios that really cut back on the time needed to make a forecast (it is basically what I normally do, only now something else is doing it). Models are necessary during winter weather forecasting. They will not take the place of my forecasts as I will still be doing them by hand, but you’re going to notice a lot of mentioning of models and analysis that haven’t been mentioned before.
Possibly the biggest thing you’ll notice are the extended forecasts. I did add an extra day to the extended forecasts, so now I got five days out instead of the normal four. Also, I am going to start adding regional long term forecasts which will go through about 6-8 days, 9 if necessary. This however does come with a price. The terms “likely” and “possible” wont be used for forecasts past 3.5 days. I will merely use the term “chance” if they could be possible, but if they are looking likely then I wont add a term after it. Example:
Day 3: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely…
Day 3.5: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely…
Day 4: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers…
For scenarios where I am expecting that they will be likely.
Those are the main changes to the way forecasts will be done for the next 3 months. I’ll keep you updated as always, and like I said I’ll have those extended forecasts updated around 10.00 a.m. this morning and I’ll have a full update coming up around Noon.
But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.
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