GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Almost Calm...

06 December 2011

Almost Calm...

The weather across the region today is going to be calming down as our system moves out of the region. That low pressure that moved through the region last night was enough to get that stationary front moving and out of the region. A few lingering rain/snow showers are out and about the eastern half fo the region this morning and those are going to start tapering off…but the will be some more precip that will lingering behind the front which is going to affec the eastern half of the region today.

Tomorrow a weak area of high pressure is going to work in keep the weather calm in the wester half of the region, but it will quickly slide out of the region as our next system gets ready to move in.

We’re going to see a nearly textbook upper level trough move down from the Plains and this is going to give us some interesting weather over the next couple of days…but interesting in a different way.

As the high pressure dwindles, the upper level trough will start to get itself organized in the region, and this is going to allow for an upper level low pressure to ride up along the east coast. This was the low that I was watching the other day, but now it looks like it’ll stay too far to the east to effect us, but the upper trough will definetly affect us in the region.

(GFS look at the weather for Friday night).

The upper trough will slide in from the Plains on Thursday night. We’ll stay on the eastern half of this trough in the region on Thurday night and Friday morning. This will allow for a wave of low pressure to move through the region, bringing in some snow showers into the region. These snow showers will be fairly scattered in the western half of the region and they will be light, same goes for the eastern half, but something else will take place in the eastern half of the region.

When the western side of this trough – the rigde – starts to move in…it’ll be bringing in some much cooler air over the much warmer lake. This will result in some lake effect snow on Friday and Saturday in the classic snow belt areas of the forecast area…eastern Cleveland up to about Buffalo. As of now, I haven’t put a snow fall total on because I need to work on just how much lake effect snow will develop, but there will be lake effect snow.

This lake effect snow will happen as that surface high pressure moves into the region. Other than the lake effect snow that’ll result in the eastern half of the region, but it will be bringing in some much cooler temperatures into the region. I am talking about highs only in the upper 20’s on Saturday with lows in the upper teens for places like Fort Wayne and Toledo. Erie and Buffalo will see those temperatures, but they might not get that low due to some of that cloud cover.

Finally, the ridge of high pressure sets into the region which will gradually warm the temperatures up a little bit on Sunday, but it will be clear.

So some typical winter weather on the way. I am going to have another update on the site where I’ll also be typing about some possible new changes to the site, so make sure you check back for that. My next Facebook update will be around 3.30 p.m., but again the site will be updated throughout the day.

But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.