GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rain and storms

25 April 2011

Rain and storms

Rain showers likely across much of the southern region today, and already we're beginning to see those rain showers enter the Fort Wayne area and soon they will be in the Toledo area. Looking at what appears to be a wave of precip along the stationary front that is causing all of this rain. Most of what we see this morning will be scattered rain showers and then later this afternoon we will start to see some thunderstorms work into the mix...however the bigger chance for thunderstorm activity will not come until later this afternoon and through tonight as that stationay front (located in central Ohio right now) moves northward as a warm front.

SPC looking at some chances for the southern part

of the region tonight through tomorrow evening when it comes to strong storms, and even Wednesday morning is of some interest to them when it comes to strong storms, so that will be something that I will be keeping an eye on, however I am still not expecting a whole lot from this system.

Temperatures are going to be fairly uniform across the region today mostly in part to that stationary front which is going to hang around the area today.

I am still watching that cluster of rain showers in the region right now, and it is pretty well organized and there appears to be a few embedded storms within the cluster, so we might hear a rumble of thunder in Fort Wayne and Toledo later this morning. Cleveland, those rain showers aren't going to get to you for another couple of hours, so the morning commute should be a fairly dry one this morning, if all goes to plan. Erie and Buffalo, you wont really see those rain showers move in until close to noon today.

As I mentioned earlier this morning, the chances for precip are going to be high for the next 48 hours across the southern part of the region. With that stationary front where it is at, anything that forms (be it a wave or disturbance) will more than likely effect the region.

Then, that front will become a warm front and move northward, and then we shall await for the arrival of the cold front on Wednesday. This is why the precip chances are going to be equally high, especially in the southwestern part of the region. It doesn't mean that it will be raining 24/7 but it means that the chances for precip this afternoon are as high as the chances of precip for tonight. Remember, I do not give out percents because I think they are pointless, so my vocab for precip chances are rather limited. Oh well.

So be sure to bring that rain jacket today, especially this morning in Toledo, Fort Wayne and possibly Detroit, and then be sure to bring that rain jacket for this afternoon if you're going to be in Erie and/or Buffalo. It will be a rainy next couple of days, and we could get some storms in the mix this afternoon, however I am not expecting that the storm chances will really increase until later this afternoon and through the overnight hours and well into Wednesday.

I'll have more coming up for the noontime update, and like I mentioned earlier this morning, the update will be anywhere between 11.30 a.m. and 12.15 p.m. I have the extended forecasts updated, I finished that this morning, and I will more than likely edit them a bit as well this afternoon.

But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Be sure to keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.