GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rainy day

25 April 2011

Rainy day

The rain is on its way, and it isn't that far away, it close to Fort Wayne right now. It is a little late, about 4 to 5 hours later than expected, but it is on its way. Across the southern part of the region today, we could see a good chance of rain showers today, moreso in the afternoon for places like Erie and Buffalo as that system is moving southwest to northeast. Fort Wayne and Toledo will see it this morning, and here is where reading this post will come in handy...

A lot of you are seeing "likely" chances for rain showers for the next 48 hours in your extended forecasts. That doesn't mean that you'll be seeing rain nonstop for the next 48 hours, it means that the chances for precip will be equal for the next 48 hours...hence why everything also says "scattered". This wont be a nonstop washout, however for example, then chances for rain in Toledo are as high today as they will be tomorrow as well. Seeing as how I do not issue percents for precip (I find percents of precip rather pointless) my vocab for precip chances are very limited.

Stationary front is right about where I expect it this morning, running basically west to east across central Ohio and Indiana, and that is going to make for some rainy over the next couple days. Now this stationary front is going to fluctuate a bit today, and then it will move northward as a warm front later this afternoon and evening, and that is going to raise temps big time in the areas in the southern part of the forecast region...however it is also going to make for some rainy and possibly stormy weather.

Checking with the SPC, they are still very interested in the southern part of the region, from places just to the east of Fort Wayne and to the west of Erie, PA tonight and tomorrow.

Now, the chances are minimal...so I am not going to make it a main part of the extended forecasts for tomorrow, but do note that we could get a strong storm late tonight and tomorrow in the mix of rain showers and thundestorms that we'll be seening. And actually, I am thinking the biggest threat for strong storms is going to come on Wednesday when that cold front begins to push through the region...I'll type more about this during the afternoon update, which will be posted sometime between 11.30 a.m. and 12.15 p.m. depending on how quickly I can get this thing re-forecasted for. Again, still at this point, I am not expecting anything too major from this next system, but it will be worth watching because it might actually be a bit more exciting than the last low pressure.

So for the day today, I am watching as those rain showers, a tad later than expected, are moving towards the area, and they'll stick with the southern part of the region for a good chunk of the day today. Coming up around 7.30 a.m., we'll take another look at these rain showers and see where they are and what we can expect from them. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.