GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Morning update

14 April 2011

Morning update

(Low pressure down in Texas will be responsible for the rain showers tomorrow evening through the weeekend).

Well the cold front is making its way across the region this morning, and we'll get some clouds from it across most of the region. Some rain showers and actually some mixing is occuring up in Green Bay, however most of those showers appear to be light. We do have some light rain showers moving through central Michigan as well, but again, I believe that those will generally stay clear of the forecast area, and the only people they might effect will be Detroit.

Most of these rain showers will be light, and I bet you that most of it is evaporating before it even hits the ground. But a few drops of rain might fall here and there around the Detroit area later this morning, but nothing too major.

Now, this isn't the big thing to type about today. Nah, far from it. What I am going to be watching is a low pressure that will form out of the Plains today, and it will quickly get a bit stronger and start heading our way. This will mostly be a rain maker and it could in fact cool temps behind it.

The clouds will begin to roll into the area later tonight and tomorrow morning as that low approaches. Temps are going to stay realively normal for the most part across the region at the same time. There will be some wind associated with this low as it moves towards us, and we could see gusts upwards to 30-35 mph from Fort Wayne to Cleveland tomorrow.

Tomorrow night those rain showers are going to enter the region in the south from that low pressure, but at the same time a second, weaker though, low pressure from Canada is going to try to slide on through from the north. It wont really cross into the US, but it will help the main low pressure in bringing moisture upwards. This is why Green Bay will see rain from this system as well.

On Saturday, I expect that temps are going to start to cool down a bit as we begin to see the backside of this low pressure system. But again, I am starting to have a bit of debate with the computer models as to where this low will go on Saturday. Some indications yet again have it going northeast through the Great Lakes region, why the most recent GFS run takes it through central Ontario. I am thinking their might be a descrepancy over which low will actually make this turn, my money is on the Canadian low in fact making this turn as the Plain's low weakens. Sounds confusing, eh? A little.

Either way, rain will be likely this weekend, at least for Saturday across much of the region. Erie and Buffalo will see lingering showers through the end of the weeekend and into the beginning of next week along with cooler temps and a sharp wind from the northwest (which will blow that cooler air from Lake Erie on you).

Coming up around noon, I am going to have an update on this low pressure confusion and I'll be working on the kinks for this forecast throughout the morning. Also, we'll take a look at the weather during the Apollo 13 mission and what the region was expierencing 41 years ago today.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.