GFS model image for 7.00 a.m. Saturday. As the low pressure passes through northern Michigan, its tailing cold front will sweep through the region. A nicely defined line of precip is noticable (our section of it I have circled).
It is that time of the year when our region seems to be effected by one low pressure after another. And once we finish with one, it seems to be there is always a second one right behind it...and then a third, and sometimes even a forth if all goes according to plan. Well for the second time in less than a week, we're going to be following yet another low pressure system that will originate pretty much from the same location as the one we saw last night.
This low pressure is going to form out of the Plain's late tomorrow night and early Friday morning and it will quickly deepen and move towards our region. A warm front will precede the low pressure as it moves our way, and with that low pressure system comes the chance for more of those scattered rain showers (like what we saw on Monday and Tuesday morning).
This warm front is going to come through overnight again, which means that our morning highs in Fort Wayne and Toledo will be possibly in the lower 50's on Saturday. This wont come free however, and more than likely we'll see quite a few rain showers in the region during the passage of this warm front. There will be a brief break in the precip I bet you once that warm front passes to the north, however the air will be unstable again and we'll be sitting in air that could produce some thunderstorms.
At this point, the SPC doesn't really think that we're going to get anything too exciting, they do have Fort Wayne under a "slight" risk for strong storms on Saturday, but the majority of their concern will be down in Missouri...which is exactly what they were thinking for the previous low pressure system. However, that break in the precip wont last long because I do expect that the cold front will follow quickly behind it. For right now, I am going to say that the best chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will come in the morning hours on Saturday for Toledo and Fort Wayne...mid morning for Cleveland and early afternoon for Erie and Buffalo.
Will the storms be strong? At this point, I do not believe the storms are going to be too big of a threat for the Erie and Buffalo area...nor Green Bay, who usually seems to not participate in the excitment of regional weather...but if anybody has a chance for strong storms on Saturday morning it will be Fort Wayne. For right now, I wont jump to conclusions because that would be a tad bit irresponsible on my part, but I am going to say that if anybody will see them on Saturday, it will be Fort Wayne. What will the main concern be? Typically, this time of the year the storms we get will produce gusty winds and small hail -- again, just like last nights -- all I expect to come from these storms will be just that. If the storms are quick, I will say the biggest thing will be gusty winds...if the storms are slow moving, then the biggest threat will be small hail. Depending on where the freezing level at that time is will also determine the amount of hail that we'll recieve.
However, most of what we'll see on Friday night and Saturday will be just plain old rain showers, with probably a very quick line of storms towards the very end of the rain showers. Literally, about the same as what we saw yesterday.
So for the weekend...between early Saturday morning (like 3.00 a.m.) to mid Saturday afternoon (like 4.00 p.m.) I do expect that we will be seeing the best chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The precip will all stay ahead of the front, and once that front passes, a high pressure should briefly take back over...but do not worry...we could have yet another low pressure on its way. We will see a brief break (or dry period as some may call it) across the region on Saturday afternoon, but again...another low pressure system to watch for Sunday...and Monday.
So its that time of the year, and get use to it because we'll be seeing systems like this lined up for at least the next couple weeks. April showers bring May flowers...even though May is typically rainier than April.
Now today I was asked a very good question by a frequent reader of this site. The question was "What does 'embedded storms' mean?". A good question that I never thought of explaining before on this site, so I will take the time to do that now. Here at GLWX we use the same terms as other places, however we use them in different context. All of our terms have their own definitions, and sometime on one of tomorrow's posts I will explain what all the terms mean, because I've been getting a lot of questions about them. But the term "embedded" means this here at GLWX: There is a high chance that a small, localized thunderstorm, could form within the cluster of rain showers. You will always see the term "embedded storms" with "scattered rain showers likely". You will never see me type "Mostly clear with a chance for an embedded storm..." because that doesn't even make sense. Lets say we get a cluster of rain showers, and perhaps a small part of those rain showers (a portion the size of...Monroe, Michigan) gets a tad bit more lift than the rest of the rain shower cluster. You get one bolt of lightning, and there you have it...embedded storm. Embedded storms, in the context I use, will never be strong, unusual or have any major concern. In fact, all you will hear is a rumble of thunder and the lightning will usually just be cloud to cloud (meaning you wont see it because it wont hit the ground). Tomorrow morning on the post, I will try to get an image up of an embedded storm on a radar image.
So, a rainy weekend and possibly some scattered storms to the end of it all. I'll have more coming up in the morning for the morning update. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I will have them for you as always.
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