GREAT LAKES WEATHER: October?

11 August 2012

October?

Regular forecasting and times have returned for Great Lakes Weather. I do apologize for the inconvience, but let's get to the weather shall we: A nice sized low pressure has made its presence known throughout the region as it has been bringing in some temperatures that are...well...below normal for the region. This low pressure is going to exit the region later today in the western half of the region, but stick around tonight for the eastern half of the region. But another low pressure, a rather similar one, will also enter the region in the next couple of days.

Right now, we're watching a low pressure centre located just to the east of Detroit/Windsor at around 1006-mbs. This low pressure is going through something we call "occlusion" which means that cooler air has wrapped itself around the centre (basically, the low is "maxing out" so-to-say). Because of this, the low is temporarily retrograding back to the west a little bit, causing it to sit over the region right now. This is what is causing the clouds and the those widely scattered (border line "isolated") rain showers in the region this morning. The low is going to continue to weaken however, and eventually, later today it'll push back to the north. However, today's high temperatures in the region are going to be very reliant upon the exiting of this low pressure. If it moves out too quickly, we'll get a bit warmer than what I am expecting, but if it hangs around, that is going to keep us cooler. So right now, basically in the region, we're just following this low pressure as it gets ready to move out of the region and this will basically be the main focus for the day today.

The eastern half of the region will hang onto the clouds and rain showers into the evening and possibly overnight tonight as that low pressure will be closer to you guys more so than the western half of the region. Basically, you guys are going to be about 12 to 18-hours behind the western half of the region in terms of weather (which is actually normal given the situation).

A high pressure is right behind it over in Minnesota and that is going to be the calm period for about a day or so in the region. This high will not be enough to keep the weather calm for much longer than about 36-hours in the region, because we're going to watch yet another low pressure, quite similar to this one, move into the region. What can we expect from this low pressure...well, let us look into a bit shall we:

An area of low pressure will move down a deepening upper level trough coming in from the Plains. This low pressure will deepen further as it enter the region. It'll pass right over the Fort Wayne/Toledo/Detroit areas and this is going to allow for rain showers, and even storms to once again develop in the region. Clouds will move in ahead of the system, we can expect those around Monday night in the western half of the region, and then even late Monday night in the eastern half of the region. The low pressure will probably bring more rain showers than it will storms, so I am not really expecting a storm event at this point. Looks like that will stay more towards the south of the region than it will anything else.

Unfortunetly for you rain lovers, this low will probably not undergo occlusion over our part of the region, so it'll probably move out within 24-hours. The eastern half of the region will probably see some lingering rain showers into the morning Wednesday, but really, I am not expecting this to be lasting as long as the low we're presently seeing.

Another high pressure sets in the region for Wednesday, calming us down but still keeping those temperatures a bit on the cool side. Which is good, because I am sure that most of us are down and/or fed up with the continuous heat.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.