GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Notice a pattern?

13 August 2012

Notice a pattern?

The weather for today in the region is going to be a little bit split: we're watching an area of low pressure head towards the region (actually, the centre of the low itself will generally stay to the south and southeast of the region, but the influence will still be here because of the upper level trough) and that is going to introduce rain showers into the western half of the region later today...but not until late tonight in the eastern half of the region.

The rain showers right now are crossing through Indiana and they are light, but I am expecting that as the daytime heating begins, those rain showers are going to increase a little bit in both intensity and area. The rain showers will generally be light to moderate, but a few embedded storms will sneak their way into the region. I am not expecting too much in the way of rain fall totals at all in the region over the next 24 to 36-hours, but noticable totals nonetheless. So when will the heaviest of the rain showers move into the region? Simple:

I am thinking that the low pressure centre will be closest to the region after midnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. That means that the majority of the western half (and even places like Cleveland and Erie) will be seeing the bulk of the rain showers overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. Again, a few storms will sneak their way into the area, but I am still not expecting this to be a storm event - it'll mainly be just a rain shower event (like what we normally get this time of the year).

Heading into tomorrow morning in the western half of the region, that low pressure will continue to head NE and it'll pass just to the southeast of Erie and Buffalo. That means the rain showers and storms in the western half of the region will quickly start dwindling, but not before noon mainly. The clouds will decrease steadily throughout the afternoon tomorrow in the western half of the region as a brief area of high pressure gets ready to set up into the region. However, the eastern half of the region is going to hold onto the rain showers for a bit longer as that low pressure passes by. The rain showers will last you guys through the morning, and then, with the combined daytime heating and the proximity of the low pressure, I am expecting an additional refiring of the rain showers tomorrow afternoon in the eastern half of the region. Those might end up being storms with additional rain showers, but more on that later (I do not feel like confusing you all this early in the day).

Upper level winds put some cooler air into the western half of the region tomorrow night and it will act as a path (as it always does) for the high pressure. Lows tomorrow night will actually dip all the way down into the mid 50's in places like Fort Wayne and perhaps even Toledo areas. So a bit on the chilly side, but hey, it sure beats the heck out of the 100F temperatures we saw a few weeks ago, huh? I'd take this over the heat any time. But, sadly to report, there is a chance that on Thursday the western half of the region might hit 90F for a high as the high pressure starts to push to the east and pulls up warmer air into the region. However as of now, I am not expecting anything really passing 90F for a high during the day Thursday.

Weather calms down for much of the region by Wednesday as that high pressure sets up in the region, but then we're going to watch...yup, you guessed it...another area of low pressure. This low pressure will move towards the region towards the end of the week and it's looking like we're going to see yet another chance for rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms again in the region by the time Friday rolls around. I'll type more about that later.

So a rain showers again in the region this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow as a low pressure passes on by. Brief high pressure in effect tomorrow night through Thursday morning. Another low pressure for the end of the work week. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.