A cold front heading towards the region will stall out briefly tomorrow night, allowing for a series of low pressure waves to ride along it. These waves will produce storms in the region tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.
Tomorrow: An upper level high pressure in the Plains tomorrow will continue to put the region in the NW flow, but barely, as the ridge will be pushing up to the north a little bit. A cold front will enter the Great Lakes region tomorrow as well, and this cold front will start to slow down in the afternoon as it comes to close the region. Because of the fact that the cold front will be to our NW and the ridge will be pushing up slightly, we're going to watch some warm air filter into the region. A surface high pressure in the SE once again will aid in assisting the hot air into the region. The western half of the region will see the warmest temperatures, getting close to 100F possible tomorrow in the Fort Wayne and Toledo areas.
The forecast starts to get a bit tricky during this time.
Tomorrow night: The parent low pressure of the front will help in dragging the upper level ridge just a tad bit more to the north during the evening hours. The cold front will slow down further over the region...and stall. It'll stretch length-wise from Fort Wayne all the way over to the south of Erie. At the same time, we're going to watch an anxious wave of low pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere come riding down the ridge (remember, we call these "Ridge Riders"). This ridge rider will help develop storms in the region during the early evening hours. The storms will be possible overnight as well.
Tuesday & Tuesday night: A high pressure coming down from Canada will push the low pressure and it's stationary front out of the region, slowly, but the front will not go that far. In fact, it will only stall out around the Ohio River. The high pressure will not be that strong either, and it will ride down the ridge as well. But here is the catch. It will pass through the eastern half of the region, bringing in a "wall" (for lack of a better word) through the region. This wall will block the next wave of low pressure from bringing storms into the eastern half of the region, but still, a storm or two is going to be possible in the region. We'll then also start to turn our attention to the west into the Plains, where a nice sized low pressure system is going to start developing.
Wednesday: We're still going to be watching that high pressure act as a wall for the eastern half of the region as some storms will be possible for the western half of the region as another wave of low pressure slides down from the ridge. The low pressure in the Plains however will continue to deepen (get stronger), and it will latch onto the stationary front in the Ohio River and pull that up northward as a warm front.
Wednesday night: Warm front pushes into the region, though falling semi-short of the eastern half of the region. This warm front will put rain showers and thunderstorms back into the region once again, and that is something I'll type about later today.
So overview: Cold front to stall out over the region tomorrow night, allowing for a wave of low pressure to ride along it. The cold front will return to motion Tuesday, but not before becoming quasi-stationary in the Ohio River. Another ridge rider expected on Tuesday briefly. A low pressure develops in the Plains, deepens, pulls the stalled Ohio River front back into the region as a warm front on Wednesday night, introduces more showers and thunderstorms.
I'll keep you updated as always, and this will serve as the Noon Update. I'll have a revision of the forecasts in a little bit, so make sure you check back for those. That's the weather!
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