18 July 2012

A cold front is nearing the region this morning, but it will slow down and more than likely stall out in a line extending from Fort Wayne to Erie (so literally right in the middle of the region). This stalled out front, along with the push from both air masses in the region, will be enough to allow for thunderstorms to develop. Now, some of these storms could be strong this afternoon, but the main threat will be small hail and some gusty winds (but more on that later).

The storms are already trying to form out around Lake Michigan area near the Kalamazoo area of Michigan (along with a seperate MCS moving towards the Detroit area this morning) and that is about where the front is this morning, so things starting to get a bit on the active side. I am expecting that the majority of the storms will not develop until this afternoon in the region, but that doesn't mean nothing will happen before that. Looking at the radar, it is rather obvious that the possibility of a storm to develop in the western half of the region before noon is there, but again, the bulk will not be until this afternoon.

The front will finally slide to the south of the region, but not quick enough. We'll watch another wave of low pressure push along the front tomorrow, and with the speed of the front, there is a possiblity that we could still pick up a rain shower or thunderstorm tomorrow from this front. But more on that later.

I'll keep you updated throughout the morning and then during the afternoon (whenever the storms start getting good), so make sure that you check back for updates. For now, that's the weather!

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