GREAT LAKES WEATHER: What happened to winter?

12 March 2012

What happened to winter?

I find it funny how this time a year ago we were coming out of that really below normal winter in the region. For this week last year we had temperatures going into the 50's. I remember typing about how much above normal that was and thinking it was a big deal...but if you look at the extended forecast...we're going to blow that out of the water.

So about yesterday, for those of you who noticed there were no updates...here is why: The weather was calm and I felt like a break for a day, I should've told you all, but I didn't think about it. Sorry about that. Now to the weather: For those of you who are looking at today's forecast and thinking they are long, well they are. We're looking at a nearly spring like system (and remember folks, it is still Meteorological Winter in the region) and this system is going to raise our temperatures for the week ahead and introduce some things that we wouldn't expect for another month or so. We have a low presure system heading towards Canada and that is going to pull an awkward cold front through the region and bring us both rain showers today and warmer weather ahead. Lets go ahead and type about this quickly, shall we (because I need to revise those forecasts):

We had a mid level system making its way northward to Canada this morning via the Plains and it does have a surface low pressure with it - however it is hard to see on the surface charts. This low pressure centre does have a trailing cold front with it and that front will head towards the region throughout the day today and pass through the region during the morning hours tomorrow. Mid level moisture is getting trapped within this system and that is going to allow for rain showers and maybe a few storms to develop out ahead of this front today. The rain showers will be fairly light, but there will be a few moderate clusters and within those clusters there might be a rumble or two of thunder, so that is something that I will be keeping an eye on throughout the morning. The rain showers today are going to fill the region evenly from the west to the east, looks like they won't develop in Erie until this afternoon, but Fort Wayne is already seeing them and Toledo is about to get them.

System pushes out of the region tomorrow, and despite a few lingering rain showers in the region tomorrow morning, tomorrow is going to be generally calm in the region. Now typically when a cold front pushes through the region we'd expect temperatures to be a bit cooler...but they won't be with this system. It is hard to explain with this system, but the upper level patters with it aren't working in our favor when it comes to normal temperatures. Once that upper level low passes through tomorrow, the flow will turn into a ridge rather quickly and that is going to allow for warmer air to filter into the region. Yes, temperatures nearing 70-F in a lot of places in the western half of the region tomorrow, and then the majority of the region will hit 70-F or above on the day Wednesday. So really some above normal temperatures in the region this week.

The upper level flow will remain as such through the forecasting period until we get our next system moving into the region which will happen towards the end of the week - however I'll type more about that later. I'll be revising those forecasts throughout the morning today, so make sure that you check back for those. Depending on how far I get on the forecasts will determine whether or not I give you all a Noon Update or not. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.