GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Educational Day

02 March 2012

Educational Day

Storms today...snow tomorrow? Today will be a very active day in the region as a strong cold front is going to push through the region. For those of you who read yesterday mornings post, you might remember me typing about the quick development of this low pressure. Well, it is starting to develop. Right now it is down in Missouri and still getting organized, but in about 12-hours or so, it'll be in Chicago and it will be a strong low pressure. Today's forecast is going to be very tricky, and here is why: The SPC has the regions to our south under a good chance for strong storms.

Now I am not expecting that we're going to see that many strong storms in the forecast area today, but nonetheless we might get a few of them. We'll more than likely see some storms in the region along with rain showers as that warm front gets ready to pass through, but as far as them being strong, it is looking questionable at this time. Lets go ahead and get right to the forecast for the next couple of days.

Why you may ask? Well we have a few wild cards in the forecasts today. The biggest one will be the cloud cover. I am really hesitant to mention strong storms in the forecast for one reason: the clouds. If the clouds become too much, they will absolutely kill the lift that a storm needs. But if they go away or at least lessen up, then we might actually be good for the storms.

The temperatures aren't going to be as warm as I had originally expected, but they will still be above average and more than likely they'll pass 60 today in Fort Wayne, Toledo, maybe even Detroit and Cleveland. Now back to the storms which I am sure a lot of you are wondering about. The biggest concern with the storms today will actually be gusty winds, I am expecting that the hail and rotation threat will stay well off to the south as the main punch of the cold front will be down that way. That isn't to say that we're going to get boring storms, but we aren't going to get the best of them either.

The timing is going to be relatively annoying, and I am thinking that I might have underestimated the system already. For those of you in the Fort Wayne and Toledo areas, do make sure that you check back throughout the morning because I might be bringing the storms in earlier then expected. Nonetheless, today will be a fun day.

When the warm front passes through the region here in a little bit, we're going to see a quick rise in the temperatures. I am hoping that this warm front will be able to push out those clouds for the most part (that is something that we're going to have to watch for). With the low pressure centre making a beeline towards the Chicago area, its strong cold front - coupled with a wave of energy from the mid to upper levels - will head towards the region. This will supply ample lift and some light shearing which is good for those of us who want the storms. However a few of us in the region probably won't see storms, but rather we're going to see rain showers.

Detroit and Buffalo, you guys might be just a little too north for this system to give you good storms, however an embedded storm is going to be possible. For you guys however, it'll mainly be rain, sorry to say. But all this excitement isn't going to happen just today, because that cold front is going to push the region back to winter like weather...especially in the Cleveland area and points to the east.

Cold front passes through this evening and overnight tonight, pulling in some cooler air, it will turn the lingering rain showers into snow showers throughout the region. The eastern half of the region is looking for a light lake effect snow event to begin to take place as this cold front really drags some cooler air over the still warm Lake Erie waters. A few inches of accumulation will be possible in the Erie area this weekend. And for those of you in Buffalo, you're going to get the brunt of the cooler air as highs on Sunday and Monday will more than likely stay below the freezing point, which means that you guys are going to be below normal for temperatures.

So here is how today's updates will work. I'll be revising the forecasts throughout the day, and I'll have occasional posts up on the site. The Facebook page won't be updated that often today, and probably not until this afternoon. Today is mainly going to be a day of trying out some new forecasting techniques and making sure that this system does what it should - I use this system as a precursor so that when we get our actual strong storms this season, I'll know what to use and what works. So, be sure that you check back for updates because I'll have them for you as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.