GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Winter

09 February 2012

Winter

The weather in the region is about to become a lot like winter here as we're going to se a strong cold front push through the region. Right now, we're seeing a high pressure dominating the regional weather this morning, however late tonight that high pressure will start to pull out of the region as a low pressure will come down from southern Canada.

This low pressure centre will actually not pass through the region, however the cool air left behind from the present high pressure is going to allow for that low pressure centre to work mainly with cooler air. Tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon and evening, we're going to watch the low's trailing cold front push through the region. This cold front is going to have some moisture with it, so expect there to be snow showers. However the question arising this morning is where exactly the snow showers will be and exactly what time (this will eventually lead to the question of accumulation). Looks like mainly the snow showers in the west will happen during the afternoon/evening which means that we won't be seeing much accumulation at all...maybe an inch at best. However the eastern part of the region is going to see a little bit of a different story.

As the cold front pushes over the warmer lake waters, the sharp temperature contrast and the cooler temps behind the front will create our well known lake effect snow showers. However the moisture associated with all of this will be limited, so I am going to put only light accumulations in the forecasts for right now. The event will last longer than originally expected, and it will take us into Saturday.

Saturday is going to be the coolest day with temperatures well below normal (about 10-15 degrees below normal) and that is going mean that highs in the region will have a hard time getting out of teens for daytime highs. This coupled with the lake efect snow showers in the east could mean some decent accumulations, but I am going to do more work on that later today.

When the cold front does pass through on Friday, the high pressure behind it will be quick to follow and this high pressure is going to set up regional dominance rather quickly in the western half of the region. This high pressure will allow for the cool air to sink in, and that is what will cause those temperatures to be so below normal on Saturday. Now depending on how much clearing takes place tomorrow night and Saturday night will really determine our overnight lows. I'd say that the region as a whole right now is looking at lows between 10 and 15 on Friday and Saturday night, but I am not going to rule out the possibility of a single digit quite yet.

High pressure begins to slip to the east on Sunday and this will allow for temperatures to begin a gradual warming phase which will lead us through the rest of the forecast period. I am thinking that the increase will be very gradual ahead of the next system that I am going to be watching.

We're going to watch a low pressure system come out of the Plains, and you know how that goes. This one is going to be interesting to follow as there is, yet again, another possibility that we could pick up some rain showers from this system. For now, I will be keeping that precip as all snow showers for the time being with no accumulations.

So not a very active weather day in the region today, and despite the cold front crossing through tomorrow, the weather isn't going to be all that active either. The only active parts to the forecasts will be the temperatures. I'll be adding some snow fall totals to the forecast later this morning if needed, and I should have those up between 11.30 a.m. and 12.30 p.m. this afternoon. My next Facebook update however won't be until later this evening. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.