GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

09 February 2012

Noon Update

As of right now, no major changes needed to the forecasts at this point. I did adjust some times of the snow for tomorrow in the western half of the region, and I did add some snow accumulation for Cleveland, but generally things remain the same.

Broad area of high pressure in the southern states this afternoon will continue to dominate the regional weather. A weak short wave is going to ride become a ridge rider, but it doesn’t have much moisture to work with so basically we’ll just a few clouds from it and that’s all.

That wave will pass through rather quickly this evening, so I am not even going to do much forecasting on it because again – most of you won’t notice is presence. High pressure begins to slide to the east this evening and that is where our next system will have its chance.

Watching a nice sized low pressure system coming down from Canada this afternoon and with it is a decent trailing cold front. With the high pressure sliding eastward, we’re going to watch the cold front begin to near the region and it will be noticeable.

What is going to be interesting about this cold front is that the snow showers are actually going to develop behind it – which is nice; it means we won’t be seeing very high chances for rain with this system. The cold front will move through the region quickly, and with it shall come temperatures that will go about 10-15° below normal (finally!) across the region.

Tomorrow night with the cold passing through the region and the cooler air filtering down from the northwest, look for lows in the region to drop rather quickly and possibly bottom out around 15° if not lower. The best temperatures aren’t going to arrive until Saturday when the centre of the high pressure enters its closest location to us and that is going to allow for those temperatures to struggle getting past 20° for a high on Saturday. I might actually lower the temperatures in the region depending on how I feel about the cloud cover on Saturday. Saturday night the high pressure give us one more burst of cooler air from its dominance and we can expect to see lows in the region anywhere from 10° to about 15°. I am not going to rule out a chance for a single digit temperature during this time period, because I am thinking that if all goes to plan this evening I will have to give Fort Wayne one.

Now this may sound like the not most exciting thing of the weekend, and while the main feature this weekend will be below normal temperatures, we’re going to have a side show of lake effect snow showers. The cold front is going to be a good one with a sharp temperature contrast as well as a good difference between the surface and 850-mb levels. The other day I didn’t think that the moisture would be able to catch up with that sharp contrast…but now it looks like it will, so that should be interesting.

The event that does come around won’t be a strong one and it won’t be anything too major. Looks like about a couple inches of snow possible in the eastern half of the region between Friday night and Saturday evening, but generally the snow showers that do form will be light and fairly scattered.

High pressure ridging takes place in the region once again and then we’re going to watch as two low pressure systems affect the region during the course of next week: one on Tuesday and another possibly on Thursday. As of now, details on these two pressure systems are iffy and I am not going to make a solid prediction on them until this evening; however they will at least be something amusing, so can not complain there.

Now because I am not expecting the weather to change a whole lot in the region this afternoon and evening, I am not going to have another post until about 8.30 p.m. this evening on both the site and on Facebook, so make sure that you check back for updates around that time as well. I’ll update you all if things change sooner, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.