GREAT LAKES WEATHER: WINTER IS BACK!

10 February 2012

WINTER IS BACK!

Last evening, I was going over the forecasts and didn’t really think much was going to change with it. However this morning, checking with the latest charts...it looks like I underestimated one small aspect of the forecast: a wave of low pressure. Now I saw it, but I didn’t think it would make it in time, however it did. So that means that the forecast got a little bit changed up this morning, not so much with timing...but with accumulations. Lets go in depth with this system a little bit shall we:

Strong cold front attached to a low pressure centre will head towards the region this morning and during the afternoon. The front is moving just a tad bit slower than expected, so it looks as though it won’t really enter the region until this afternoon/evening, which basically just means that today will be a tad bit calmer. Now this low pressure centre isn’t going to pass through the region, it’ll stay to the north, but the cool air is still in place from our high pressure system which will make sure that the precip remains snow in the region. This cold front is going to head towards the region, and ahead of the front we’re going to see a wave of low pressure sneak up along the front, introducing a little jolt of moisture which will make the front happy.

This short wave will arrive this afternoon in the western half of the region, and that is going to allow for snow showers to start developing along the front in a SW to NE pattern. Looking for the snow showers to remain generally light and scattered until the bulk of the front arrives with the short wave more so early this evening. This is where the weather is going to get rather interesting throughout the region.

Tonight, this cold front will pass through the region, and though it will have snow both ahead of and behind the front, the most excitement will actually happen once the front passes through the region. Much cooler air is going to filter in quickly from the NW and this is going to ride over the warmer lake waters out in the eastern half of the region. What does all this mean? Simple, lake effect snow showers are going to be happening. Snow accumulations with this event are going to be decent with accumulations from the lake effect snow showers in the east out around 2-4 inches tonight alone, with additional snow fall tomorrow and tomorrow night. Now the east isn’t going to be the only place seeing snow fall totals. Let’s back track a bit to the western half of the region.

So that short wave and front. Well once that sun sets tonight and those temperatures fall with the inversion of cooler air from the north and such, we’re going to see that snow start sticking. Also, the intensity of the snow showers will up itself a little bit, and it looks as though we’ll go into steady snow showers for a period overnight tonight. Snow totals in the western half of the region could get upwards to 1-3 inches tonight with an additional inch possible tomorrow morning. Wind will also be something to keep an eye on, and I am going to be keeping an eye on that as well, could see a little blowing of the snow, but nothing unusual.

The cold front will be out of the region tomorrow, but the snow showers are still going to hang around the region for a period of time tomorrow morning as a trough pushes through. A couple short waves will move through the region this weekend as well, but I’ll type more about those little players later today.

For those of you in the Toledo, Cleveland and Erie areas, do not be surprised if some winter weather advisories go up within the next few hours...though it’s not anything to get worked up about. Remember folks, it is February in the Great Lakes region...and snow does have a tendency to happen...just saying.

I’ll keep you updated periodically throughout the morning on the site, but do to time constraints I won’t be updating the Facebook page until later this afternoon. Remember, if you have any questions about the forecasts, be sure to send those emails to albertson_timmy@yahoo.com and I’ll be sure to get those right away. Extended forecasts will also be revised throughout the morning.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.