GREAT LAKES WEATHER: What season is this?

27 February 2012

What season is this?

Weather across the region today will remain fairly calm, despite a cold front trying to make its way across the region this morning. The cold front isn't doing much as it moves through the region, located just barely to the west of Fort Wayne and the only thing that we're really seeing from it will be some clouds. However as the front makes its way into the eastern half of the region a little bit later this morning/afternoon, there might be enough lift that a few light rain showers could pop up out around Buffalo, but really that is about - with the exception of a stray snow flurry possible on the backside of this front in Buffalo. The front is part of a low pressure system that is moving off to the north of the region this morning, helping to keep those temperatures mild and not very winter like. Though the front will pass through the region today and drop temperatures slightly overnight tonight...possibly into the lower 20's out in the west...we're going to be seeing the temperatures go a bit above normal on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

As the high pressure behind today's front moves out of the region tomorow, it will pull up some warm and southernly air into the region. This is going to allow for temperatures to climb to above normal levels during the day Tuesday and especially on Wednesday. But tomorrow, we're going to watch a low pressure centre develop in the Plains along side an upper level trough. This low pressure centre will deepen rather quickly, and it will also provide itself - naturally - with a trailing cold front and preceeding warm front.

Tuesday night, low pressure centre continues to deepe and then head to the NE into Iowa area. This will drag a warm front across the region and this where the precip will start. The precip will possibly start out as snow showers after midnight tomorrow night, but those temperatures aren't going to support the snow accumulation at all. The other problem is that the snow showers won't last very long, because once that warm front gets close enough...it'll make a transition into the rain showers. Detroit is going to be questionable during this time however, as some freezing rain and sleet might work its way into the mix during the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Wednesday, with the low pressure centre producing basically a blizzard in the state of Minnesota and over in Wisconsin, we'll remain to the south of this low - which means rain for us and warmer temperatures. The cold front is going to near the region rather quickly, allowing for warm air advection to continue to take place. The thing about this part of the forecast, is the temperatures are going to climb to about 60 in parts of the region, which might provide a good enough lift (and with the moisture available for it) we might be able to sneak an embedded storm or two into the region during this time. However I am expecting that this event will mainly be rain showers and not thunderstorms as the cloud cover is going to really hinder that lift. But I'll keep an eye on it, just for the fun of it all.

Wednesday night, the low pressure will have used and nearly wasted a good amount of its energy producing that blizzard in the Minnesota area and Wisconsin area. This will allow for the low pressure to start really moving, cutting through Michigan and dragging that cold front across the region. The cold front will quickly end the precip in the region, however the temperatures are going to have a hard time dropping back to their normal levels. Looks like that high pressure won't be in the proper place, and it doesn't help that a ridge will be in the region, so I'll type more about that later.

A weak surface trough will move through the region on Thursday...possibly giving a few rain showers...otherwise, nothing much.

So a few busy weather days are expected in the region as this low pressure out of the Plains will head to the north of the region and produce a fair amount of rain showers. I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll be revising those extended forecasts throughout the day and I'll the regular Noontime update. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.