GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

27 February 2012

Noon Update

So I really haven’t made many changes to the forecasts this afternoon as the latest charts to have come out look to be basically on course with the forecasts. I am still having a little discrepancy over Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, but other than that, nothing much in the forecasts will need to be changed right now. A broad upper level trough is heading towards the region this afternoon as the cold front makes its way across the western half of the region. Temperatures in the western half of the region have pretty much hit their max and they’ll plateau for a little bit and then start to fall later this afternoon.

Upper level trough will move through the region overnight tonight – and I am actually starting to wonder if the clouds will accidently seep into the region this evening – but the weather will remain fairly calm as a surface high pressure presents itself. The high pressure will actually put our temperatures in a decent spot tonight, down into the 20’s for a good portion of the region. The skies will remain generally clear so expect that those temperatures will actually fall down into the lower 20’s so I’ll be keeping an eye on that.

Forecast becomes unsettled as the afternoon comes about tomorrow and then the evening rolls through. Tomorrow morning and early afternoon we’re going to watch a sharp upper level trough/low pull out of the Rockies and this is going to help a developing surface low pressure centre. This low pressure centre will quickly deepen, remain stationary for a few hours, and then begin to move towards the northeast at a reasonable speed.

Throughout the afternoon tomorrow we’re going to watch this low pressure near the forecast area and with the low’s centre will come a warm front and a cold front. This warm front will actually present itself as the main player in the forecasts, and the cold front will stay to our south which means we’ll have to deal with an occluded front. The rain showers will begin to develop from the west to the east late tomorrow night and those are going to start filling into the region rather quickly. The question right now that is starting to arise is whether or not the rain showers will be steadier or if they will be more scattered…some hints that the rain showers will be steady. There is a slight chance that the rain showers will actually start off as snow showers briefly around midnight tomorrow night, but those are going to get run over fairly quickly by the warmer air and turn it mainly into snow showers.

Wednesday morning will be interesting for the Detroit area as there could be a little freezing rain and sleet that might mix in with all that precip. This will have to be watched, but no later than Noon on Wednesday will it become all rain.

Rain fall amounts might actually be decent, running upwards past a half an inch by the time the afternoon comes around on Wednesday. However, I am going to have to do more work on that system as well.

So the system is going to pull out of the region during the afternoon Wednesday, however I am thinking that there might be a little bit of left over moisture from this system. Some question as to how much moisture will be in the mid levels, some models are hinting about some dry air pulling in quickly behind this system which means no lingering precip, however others are hinting that there will be some which means there will be lingering precip. This is the forecast period between Wednesday night and Thursday morning in the region, which is where a good majority of the forecasting time will go to this afternoon.

I’ll have another forecast revision coming up around 4.00 p.m. this afternoon, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.