GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Weird Transitions

14 February 2012

Weird Transitions

For some reason, I am running a bit behind this morning, so expect this to be a somewhat short update for the morning standards.

For those of you who may or may not remember, this day 5-years ago was when the region saw the "Valentines Day Snow Storm" and it was an interesting one. I remember it, it wasn't so much the snow as it was the winds and cooler temperatures that came right behind it. But nonetheless it was a great way to save the winter of 2006-07.

Today the region isn't going to be seeing any blizzard. We have a weakening upper level trough moving through the region this morning and it is producing some snow. However the temperatures aren't that low and the winds aren't that gusty at all. The snow is coming down light, albeit steady, in the west right now. Because of this I am going to still keep the snow fall accumulations around an inch in most of the western half of the region. Temperatures will warm today into the mid 30's and that will try to melt that snow that away this afternoon. The snow isn't going to be around that long, and despite its earlier than expected arrival, it will push out of the western half of the region by the Noon time hours. The eastern half of the region will be seeing pretty much of the same thing, only the snow hasn't begun to fall over that way yet.

Looking at snow fall totals in the eastern half of the region today to remain rather the same as the western half of the region. Look for accumulations generally under an inch. The snow in that area will clear out this evening, with the exception of Buffalo who is going to have to wait until tomorrow morning for that snow to clear out of their area.

The weather in the region will calm down briefly as a weak area of high pressure quickly moves by. Then we're going to watch our next system develop in the Plains tomorrow afternoon and quickly head towards the region. This system will bring us rain, and this could bring a little bit of rain fall totals. The system will pass to our north, allowing for the bulk of the precip in the region to remain as rain. The temperatures will actually climb up into the lower 40's during this rain event as well, so really I am not expecting that much of this will turn to snow showers. The system will pull its cold front across the region on Thursday afternoon, and this will gradually allow for the rain showers to taper off in the region. However as this cold front passes through the eastern half of the region, there could be a little bit of a lake effect snow event taking place once again.

The front won't have that much cooler air behind it, but it might have just the minimal ingredients needed to produce a weak lake effect event on Thursday night and into Friday - mainly in the Erie and Buffalo areas. I am not expecting that accumulations will be that much at all because once again those high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will remain above the 32F mark.

I'll have another update coming up around 11.30 a.m. this morning on the site, so make sure that you check back for that. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.