Update

Made a few changes to the forecasts for both today and tomorrow, they were mainly for the western half of the region which is where the most difficulty is arising this morning. This low pressure centre will actually pass just barely to the south of the region, and then head through Erie and up to the northeast. So, let us go over this system once again and what we can expect it to do in the region over the course of the next 36-hours or so.

Today, the low pressure centre that is responsible for this is down in the central Plains and getting organized rather quickly. This low pressure centre is going to continue to deepen and within the next few hours it’ll start to make a beeline towards the region. The low pressure is beginning to form itself a warm front which is going to lift into the region later this afternoon. Ahead of the front, we’re going to see cloudy skies as the main feature, but as the afternoon progresses we can expect to see some precipitation start forming just ahead of the front – but not until late this afternoon. The temperatures are going to be finicky today as that front will either put the region in the lower 40’s…or the mid 40’s. Either way, it is going to be above normal in terms of temperatures this morning.

This evening and overnight, that warm front will pass through the bulk of the region, allowing for rain showers to develop around it. The only place in the region that is going to be seeing mostly snow out of this is going to be Detroit. Here is why: this evening, that warm front will actually stall out over Lake Erie, putting Detroit just barely to the south of it. With some of that cooler air rushing in from the east, we’ll watch that slip under the warmer and moist air and thus…snow. However, the big thing to watch for is going to be the exact location to where this front stalls out tonight. The front isn’t going to be the main focus tonight (though it is getting a lot of attention) what is controlling the front is the low pressure centre. During this time, we’re going to watch the low pressure centre near the region and stay just barely to the south of it. Typically, if we’re in this spot it is good, but this low is very tricky in the sense that it doesn’t have that blast of cooler (for lack of a better word)…also the fact that it passing so close is making things tricky. On the tail end of this low pressure centre will be its cold front, and this cold front is going to be noticeable…especially after midnight tonight and into the day tomorrow. With the passage of the front, we’ll see wrapped around moisture enter the cooler air behind the front and this is where those snow showers will come into the play for the region.

The other interesting question that is arising this morning is whether or not there will be a lag between the rain showers and the snow showers. What this means is that will the scattered rain showers transition over to snow showers right away, or will it be scattered rain showers…then a break…and then scattered snow showers arriving. Either way, the snow showers will be making their way into the region overnight tonight.

Now the eastern half of the region will unfortunately have to wait for those snow showers as that cold front won’t really blow through you guys until tomorrow morning. But for the western half of the region, expect an overnight transition, more so towards sunrise (or at least after midnight). However, as the saying goes “good things come to those who wait” and that is what the eastern half of the region will be expecting in a little bit.

The snow accumulations and totals that do come from this system will be minimal. I am still holding onto 1-3 inches in the Detroit area, but still I might up it to about 2-4 inches depending on how I feel. The rest of the region, eh, not so much, as the surface temperatures will more than likely be unsupportive of any real accumulation. Due to the early transition in the precipitation for the western half of the region, I did give you guys about an inch possible, and Buffalo I gave 1-2 inches possible between tonight and tomorrow, but mainly I am just not feeling that accumulations are going to be all that big as of now.

Tomorrow morning, the cold front will finish its passage through the region, dragging cooler air into the region as well as wind. Winds are going to start kicking up – as early as tonight – in the western half of the region, and they will increase throughout the morning. The same is going to happen in the eastern half of the region, though it’ll be a few hours behind. Looking for gusts upwards to 35-mph tomorrow and even into the evening tomorrow. Though this won’t be a big difference in the western half of the region, it’ll make a difference in the eastern half of the region. When the cooler air blows over that warm lake waters…you guessed it: lake effect snow showers will develop and this is where the question of accumulation really rises for Erie and Buffalo, so more monitoring on that will have to be done.

Despite the fact that the front will have passed through tomorrow morning and early afternoon, the snow showers are still going to linger as wrap around moisture finds itself locked in with the cooler air and gusty winds. A few surface troughs of low pressure will also work their way through the region, adding to the flurries and light snow showers, but still I am not expecting any accumulation. Temperatures tomorrow and even on Saturday will be right around the 32° point in many places in the region, so that is going to make for some difficult times when those snow flakes try to accumulate.

Low pressure system will exit the region tomorrow evening, allowing for the upper level flow to return to the northwest, introducing some near average temperatures into the region. A high pressure will try to set up across the region, though how much influence it is going to have with the cloud cover is still up for debates at this time. Then with a brief break in the weather during the latter half of the weekend, we’re going to watch as our next system gets ready to enter the region, and I’ll type more about that one once this present system gets out of the way.

So this system is going to be a bit tricky, but either way it isn’t going to be a big snow maker even if the region does end up seeing more snow. Temperatures will still be at an awkward point, which will make it hard for those snow flakes to accumulate. I’ll keep you updated as always, and I’ll be revising those forecasts throughout the morning, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.