GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Interesting system is coming

23 February 2012

Interesting system is coming

Last evening, things were looking normal, which is why there was no update. However this morning the charts have changed their mind and now we have an interesting system on its way that will bring a divided result towards the region. A low pressure will come rushing out of the Plains today, pass just to the south of the forecast region, but still close to give the entire region. Lets go ahead and take a look at this system shall we:

The forecast is realively simple between now and Saturday morning...or so it appears. Right now, we have an area of low pressure centered down in the central Plains this morning and it is going to continue to get stronger. At the same time, we're watching a broad upper level trough remaining in the northern Plains and into Canada which will assist this low pressure in all of its functions. This low pressure is going to deepen (get stronger) as the day goes on today and then it'll start to make a beeline towards the region. This low pressure system is going to have the following: a preceeding warm front and a trailing cold front. The warm front will be felt later today as this system gets ready to enter the region, but the cold front is going to be the biggest feature - and both might not even effect parts of the region. For those of you who remember the rule of winter time low pressures that I have been telling you about since November: Stays to the south its snow, stays to the north its rain. This low is going to try and break that rule a little bit. Though pretty much the entire region is going to remain to its south, there just isn't enough cooler air in place right now that we'll be seeing snow showers for everybody...that doesn't mean it won't happen, it just isn't going to happen the way we'd normally expect it to happen.

Looks like Detroit, you guys are going to see to the best of this system (at least for areas that I forecast) and you guys will get about 1-3 inches of snow, and I might bump it up to about 2-4 depending on how the morning goes. This system is going to be mainly a snow event for you, as cooler air will be rushing over some moisture in the central Michigan area which will in turn give you snow. What is happening is an entirely different weather lesson of its own that I will not go in depth about.

The system will move through quickly, passing through Columbus and then on up through Erie. This means that the cold front will pass through the eastern half of region allowing for lake effect snow to develop during the evening tomorrow. How much snow could the eastern half of the region see? Not much as temperatures will not support it that much, for now I went with under an inch however this will be monitored.

Saturday morning, this low will deepen more as it exits the region, and this is going to allow for some cooler air to finally roll into the region (and even over the warmer lake waters which results in lake effect snow) and this is where the presense of a high pressure would normally be welcomed. However, there isn't going to be a high pressure centered in our region...it will stay well to the south which means that temperatures will mainly be influenced by the flow from the upper level winds dragging the air down from Canada. Sounds boring right? Eh, it sort of is.

So in a nutshell, here is how this system is going to go down: Low pressure races out of the central Plains today and begins to affect the region as early as this afternoon. Low pressure centre will pass to the south of the region, allowing for rain showers and snow showers to affect the region with the best chances for snow being in Detroit. Low pressure continues to deepen as it heads to through Erie and off to the northeast, allowing for cooler air to move through the region, but not that cool. High pressure ridge sets up to our south, allowing for the weather to remain calm for about a day or two during the beginning of the week.

Now, due note that this system will be tricky in the sense that a "wooble" in any direction will make a huge difference.

I'll keep you all updated on this system, and this will be an interesting one to follow. I'll be revising those forecasts throughout the morning and I'll have a few brief updates in between revisions so make sure that you check back for those. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.