GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Stuck in the never-ending November

20 February 2012

Stuck in the never-ending November

Didn't make that many changes to the forecasts this afternoon as things are generally going to plan. There are a few minor changes I did make, but mainly for times, not so much chances.

Low pressure developing in the central Plains this afternoon will continue to deepen and get ready to move towards the region. This low pressure is going to actually move north of the region - which puts us in a bad spot - and it will never fully cross any part of the forecast area. This low pressure will actually head northeast into Minnesota...where they will be getting some snow, but we'll be getting some rain showers from this system. The low will have a warm front and a trailing cold front, the cold front not really living up to its name by the time it gets here. As this low pressure heads towards the region tonight and tomorrow morning, expect the clouds to start increasing from the west to the east across the region (despite the present clouds in some spots of the region, the majority will not arrive until this evening and after midnight) and then we're going to go with mostly cloudy skies tomorrow morning. The rain showers that do form tomorrow morning will be interesting.

What is going to happen with this warm front is that it will head towards the region tonight. Ahead of it will be some precip, and the majority of it in our portion of the system will be rain. However some brief mixing could take place, mainly in spots north and west of Fort Wayne, Toledo and areas just to the west of Detroit. However the snow won't accumulate if it does happen, so do not expect much from that. Then we're going to watch the rain showers enter the region...and they will be arriving. The rain showers will start developing in the western half of the region during the morning hours and those are going to start off as scattered, but then quickly fill in. Once that happens, the initial push of rain showers will move through the western half of the region between late morning and early afternoon. Once that push of rain showers is over, we'll just simply go with widely scattered rain showers which will take us into the evening. The same thing will happen in the eastern half of the region tomorrow, but only it will happen a few hours later.

I am not expecting that there will be that much mixing on the tail end of this system once the cold front passes. It looks like it'll pass through too early which mainly means that I might end up taking away a good amount of snow shower chances for tomorrow night in the region. The only thing you can hope for really at this point will be some brief mixing on the backside of this front, but knowing the moisture levels associated with this system it might not actually happen.

Weather will attempt to stay calm for a good majority of the day on Wednesday, but then we're going to watch our next system get ready to move into the region, and it will introduce the warm air once again and the rain showers during the evening hours and into the overnight hours. How much will come from this on Wednesday night is questionable, and further forecasting will be done on it, but Thursday looks to be a good rain filled day as that system crosses through the region. In fact, this system is like a Novemeber-type system. Ugh.

Some mixing will occur with the next system, but that won't be all that much, and I'll explain that a little bit later. Also, I was going to type about the weather for the 1962 John Glenn flight, however due to space I am going to save that for the Evening Post tonight. Otherwise, not much going on in the region as temperatures are basically on track and things are going to plan. I'll have another update coming up this evening, probably around 6.00 p.m. or so, give or take, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.