GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Semi-active Week

13 February 2012

Semi-active Week

The forecast for this week is going to be a little bit on the active side compared to what we saw this time last week. Today will be a calm day, however this evening things will get a little on the active side as our next system moves towards the region. The system that I am watching is a weakening upper level trough which will enter the region behind this broad area of high pressure and we're going to see some snow showers develop from it. However, despite the fact that we're going to be seeing some snow showers from it, we're actually not going to see a whole lot in terms of accumlations. Why? Simple, the temperatures aren't going to really support a whole lot. I did Cleveland about an inch of snow possible tomorrow, but in all honesty that probably won't end up happening. With the temperatures uniform in the region tomorrow in the mid 30's...I am not expecting that a whole lot of snow will accumulate.

The system is going to be a quick moving one, and it'll take us through the tonight and mainly tomorrow morning in the region. The west will see it first with increasing clouds this afternoon and the snow showers developing late tonight and taking us through the morning hours tomorrow. The snow showers will be fairly light and scattered at first, they could be steady at times, but really this isn't going to be a big snow event. As the trough pushes towards the eastern half of the region tomorrow morning, snow showers will begin to develop in the early morning hours and those will last a tad bit longer. Could be seeing a little lake enhancement snow showers with this system as it tries to pull cooler air over the warmer lake waters, but generally anything that does form will be another non accumulating event. System will be out of the region more than likely by the late evening tomorrow at the latest. However, despite all this we have yet another system that is going to make things a bit annoying for the region.

Enter the low pressure system from the Plains. Remember that November pattern we were stuck in just a few weeks ago? Well, it might have returned. We're going to watch a nice sized low pressure develop out of the Plains during the day Wednesday and this low pressure system will deepen and then head towards the region...but not so much in the direction that we want it to head. This low pressure will actually cut a course just to the north of the region, which means...yes, you guessed it...rain. Looks like we'll be seeing some rain showers in the region by the time Thursday rolls around. The rain might actually start off as snow briefly on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, maybe even a smidge of freezing rain - though I wouldn't hold my breath for that quite yet - and then we're going to transition into rain showers as the low pressure pulls a warm front across the region. On Thursday afternoon, the low pressure will pull its cold front through the region, making for the possibility of early afternoon highs rather than the highs that we're use to seeing in the mid to late afternoon. Lingering precip will turn to snow, but it more than likely won't accumulate because the groubd will be too warm.

System pulls through rather quickly and then we're going to watch as a high pressure slips into the southern Plains once again, causing for temperatures to retreat back to their normal levels.

So an active week in terms of weather here in the region, though I am not expecting anything too major to occur in the region. Looks like another little lake effect event on Friday night as that cold front pushes through as well, otherwise nothing much in the long term.

I'll keep you updated as always, my next updates will be coming up around 11.30 a.m. this morning and I'll be revising those extended forecasts around that time as well. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.