GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noontime Update

08 February 2012

Noontime Update

Upper level wave (formally a good sized upper low) passing to the south of the region this afternoon and this is going to try to throw a few snow flurries into the region before noon (and early this afternoon in the East). Nonetheless we’re not going to be seeing a whole lot of excitement from this system other than some clouds.

Temperatures in the region right now are amazingly actually right around average for this time of the year and time of the day, and we’re going to see some temps try to climb into the mid to upper 30’s today in the region, but generally it won’t be that warm.

High pressure moving down through the Midwest this afternoon will allow for the clouds to break in the region later this afternoon. Looking for mainly clear skies this evening and overnight in the region with lows actually getting to a decent temperature in the 20’s. Otherwise today and tomorrow won’t be very active.

We’re going to watch our cold front head towards the region during the day Friday, timing with this front is a little bit iffy, but generally we’re going to see it pass through between mid morning and early afternoon in the western half of the region. Snow showers will be developing behind the front and the temperatures are going to fall noticeably behind it. Some minimal accumulations could happen on Friday, but really the western half of the region won’t be able to see that much because temperatures are still going to be a little too warm for accumulation to occur.

This front is going to be interesting, as drying will occur quickly behind it. However, the fun challenge is going to be whether or not that moisture from the front will be able to hold out long enough to hit that 10-12°C difference between the surface and 850-mb levels…it will be even more interesting to see if it holds out long enough to make it to the 20°C difference later. However, for now, I am going to continue to keep it as a brief and minimal lake effect event on Friday night/ Saturday morning in the eastern half of the region with accumulations generally staying around 1-2 inches at best.

Temperatures on Saturday will be the main topic with this system as it moves on through. I am looking for that high pressure to be in a good position during this time which will allow for cool air to continue rushing down from the north. Highs during the day Saturday will only get into the lower 20’s in the western half of the region – and they might not even get above 20° in the eastern half of the region – this being about 15° below normal for this time of the year (but welcomed nonetheless).

Watching as a ridge of high pressure returns to the region on Sunday and then on Monday and this will allow for a slow, yet gradual warming trend to return into the region. How high the temperatures will get…eh, I am not all that focused on that part of the forecast, because there might be another precip making low pressure to develop out of the southern Plains which might very well head towards the region. Albeit rain or snow is still a question at this point. I am going to say that this next low will somehow affect the region by the time next Wednesday (15 February) rolls around. I’ll type more about that low pressure system on the Evening Update.

So for now, looking at some calm weather in the region despite some flurries and clouds. High pressure builds briefly tonight and tomorrow and then a cold front swings down through the region and drops our temperatures to below normal (finally).

I’ll keep you updated as always, and my update will be around 5.30 p.m. this evening on both the site and on Facebook. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.