Noon Update

I made a few minor adjustments to the forecasts throughout the morning, however they ended up all being for Saturday and not Sunday/Monday like I was expecting. Forecasts generally going smoothly however as we’re going to watch two systems pass by the region, both not really bringing anything that much other than clouds and some scattered precip.

The first system is going to come in the form of a weak low pressure that is going to pass just to the north of the region. Though it is February, we’re going to see both of a mix of rain and snow from this system as it drags its cold front across the region. The only place that isn’t going to see the mix will be Buffalo who’ll stay with all snow showers. With temperatures being a little too warm tomorrow for snow accumulation, I am not going to expect anything other than an inch in the Buffalo area. In the western half of the region the front will introduce very widely scattered rain showers during the morning hours, and then during the afternoon as that front passes through the region those rain showers will actually turn over to scattered flurries. Again I am not expecting any accumulation from this system as it passes through the region.

It’ll be quick moving and will be out of the region by tomorrow evening. A brief lake effect snow event could develop in the eastern half of the region during the evening hours with the passage of the front, however those snow showers will be light and widely scattered as well and I am not going to expect that there is going to be any accumulation that will exceed an inch. A high pressure will briefly set up in the region from the south and this is going to clear out those skies and allow for mainly clear skies in the western half of the region tomorrow night. However, the eastern half of the region is going to attempt to hold onto some of those clouds, but as far as precip is concerned there won’t be much around after midnight.

Weather remains calm for the day Sunday and into Monday as the high pressure continues to play dominance in the region. The will retreat very briefly on Sunday as a low pressure system develops in the southeastern states, however the high pressure is going to rather quickly creating a “block” (for lack of a better term) across the region. This high pressure is going to keep the region calm over the weekend as a low pressure system passes to our south and east…rather closely too. But as of now, I am expecting that the rain showers will stay out of the region – barely missing Erie and Cleveland – and we’ll keep those clear skies through the weekend and into Monday. Now this isn’t going to last long as we’re going to watch one more system move through the region.

This system is going to come in the form of a low pressure system which will pass once again just to our north. It’ll have a trailing cold front with it, and the timing is going to be annoying to forecast for. This cold front will introduce rain showers ahead of it starting as early as late Tuesday afternoon in the western half of the region. As to the intensity of this low pressure system, I am a tad bit unsure, but either way there is going to be some warm air advection with it, so it looks as though we’re going to enter the 50’s once again during the afternoon on Tuesday and this system will also bring rain. I’ll type more about this system later this evening.

So I’ll keep you updated as always, and I’ll have another update coming up around 4.30 p.m., however it won’t be a big one…just some quick forecast revisions and a brief post. And same goes for the Evening Post if I feel the need to have one. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.