GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Finally winter?

06 February 2012

Finally winter?

Not a whole lot in the way of weather for today (but some interesting weather is on its way) in the region as a broad area of high pressure across the country this morning is going to keep the weather for this morning and afternoon calm in the region. There are some low level clouds this morning over Illinois and I am keeping an eye on them this morning, however, those are running into drier air and they will start to dissipate as they head towards the region, so I will keep them out of the forecast for right now, but there might be a few clouds in the sky today...nothing to really change the forecast over though. Otherwise, the real batch of clouds will begin to arrive tonight as a cold front heads towards the region and introducing some limited snow showers as well as some cloudy skies and cooler temperatures.

Cold front will move through the region, mainly tomorrow morning, and this front is going to allow for some scattered snow showers to develop ahead of it. However the snow showers that do form will be light and spaced apart, so as far as snow accumulation goes in the region I am not really thinking there will be anything over an inch. The only area to keep an eye on with this front will be the eastern half of the region as a brief lake effect snow shower could develop tomorrow. As the cold front pushes through the eastern half of the region tomorrow, there will be a temperature contrast between the surface and 850-mb levels, however I am not expecting that the difference will be all that high (mainly between 8-12C). With this front also being a bit moisture deprived and the winds being fairly light, again, we’ll probably see a weak lake effect event at best tomorrow, with accumulations of an inch barely happening. I’ll do further work on this part of the forecast throughout the morning, though I am not expecting that I will have to change it that much.

Weather in the region calms down once again as a large area of high pressure slips down from the northern Plains and moves into the central Plains. This area of high pressure will work in dominating the regional weather for the day Wednesday and into Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures and some clearer skies. So not really a whole lot happening during that period of the forecast.

Weather turns rather interesting on Friday and Saturday (this where a good majority of my forecast time will go to this morning) as a strong cold front moves across the region and introduces some actual winter weather into the region. Am I talking about a snow storm? No. But I am talking about a few snow showers and some below normal temperatures that will be welcomed - especially seeing as how we’ve been about 5-degrees above average all season.

The only tricky part with this portion of the forecast is going to be how much snow we could see...and then how low the temperatures will get. I have a feeling that my forecasted highs on Friday and Saturday are just a little too high, so I might actually lower them around the noontime update. Otherwise, there really isn’t a whole lot in the forecasts that has changed since I last updated you around this time yesterday. I’ll be revising the forecasts throughout the morning and I’ll have them revised and posted up on the site around 11.30 a.m. this morning and then that’ll be followed by a Noon Update (my next Facebook update won’t be until 4.00 p.m. this afternoon). I’ll be tweaking up the forecasts, so by around that time all should be good and I’ll let you know what we can expect over the next few days. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.