GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Uh...snow?

27 January 2012

Uh...snow?

The weather this morning is a little interesting...actually it reminds me of early December. So think of it this way: If late January is early December, then I am expecting that by May we'll finally see a deep freeze. Humor. Ok, we have a low pressure exiting the region right now ahead of a very elongated upper level trough that is moving through the western half of the region this morning. The low pressure centre is still a little bit stronger than I was expecting, but nonetheless it is doing what it is suppose to.

The low pressure has a decent amount of wrap around moisture which we're seeing over the western half of the region this morning with some wet snow showers falling, but those will be leaving within the next hour or two. The tricky part with the forecasts this morning has been the temperatures. In the western half of the region, places like Fort Wayne and Toledo keep jumping back and forth between 31, 32 and 33 degrees, so that is making that accumulation a little hard this morning for the snow. However, despite it isn't in the forecast this morning, I think that an inch of snow is possible for part of the western half of the region this morning. The thing is though, the snow will melt off this morning as the temperatures will crawl into the mid 30's for a high today, and possibly the upper 30's in a few spots this afternon.

Watching some lingering rain showers in the eastern half of the region this morning, as the cold front hasn't crossed through yet. Just to note, the low's centre is still over Erie right now, which is why Buffalo is still seeing rain showers. Temperatures today in the eastern half of the region will actually start to drop a little bit this morning as that low pressure pushes through the region. I am expecting that some lake effect will start to develop later this morning and early afternoon in the eastern half of the region as some cooler air will actually push through the warmer lake waters. The question will once again be the temperatures - working with highs in the low to mid 30's when there is snow is never fun because it makes things tricky - but if all goes to plan this afternoon, places around Erie could see about an inch or two at the most by the time the late afternoon rolls around. If a lake effect event does form, it won't be much.

Tonight we're going to watch a weak ridge of high pressure focused generally at the surface and mid levels try to dominate the regional weather, but the clouds aren't going to clear out that much and it wont be clear for that long. This high pressure will remain once again to the south of the region. At the same time, the upper level flow is going to be out of the northwest which turns our attention to another low pressure that is going to head towards the region overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.

This low pressure won't be strong, and it is more of a clipper type system when you look at it. This low will push through the region tomorrow and tomorrow night and it will allow for some snow showers to finally develop. Highs tomorrow are once again going to make things tricky to forecats for, but I might be putting up some small snow totals in the region later this morning for the snow tomorrow.

Tomorrow night, we'll watch that low pressure pull a cold front through the region, and this will actually be able to produce possibly a brief lake effect event in the eastern half of the region tomorow night and early Sunday morning. Temperatures are actually going to get a little low, which could support a little bit of snow accumulations tomorrow night and Sunday morning in the eastern half of the region, but further monitoring on that will have to be done.

Calm weather for the rest of the weekend, and then we're going to watch yet another low pressure system get ready to affect the region and it will bring...yes, you guessed it...rain.

I'll type more about the weather for the weekend and our next system for the beginning of next week, and I'll do so around 11.30 a.m. I'll be revising those extended however sooner, and that will happen around 7.30 a.m. this morning, so make sure that you check back for updates on that. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.