GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

27 January 2012

Noon Update

Not really a whole lot in the way of forecast revisions this afternoon as the majority of things are going to plan right now. We’re going to watch as the western half of the region attempts a few cloud breaks this afternoon, but the breaks that do happen aren’t going to last us very long as we’re going to see the clouds once again return into the region.

Still holding out for a small lake effect snow event in the eastern half of the region this afternoon as that front pushes on through. However moisture will be limited and temperatures will be a little too warm to support that much in the way of snow accumulation, so we’ll generally go with accumulations in Erie of about 1-2 inches at its best. That event should give up this evening, and we’ll just stick with a few lingering flurries and some cloudy skies.

Our next system will slide down from the northern Plains as the day goes on and by the time tomorrow happens the clipper will be entering the region. The low will be fast moving, staying to the north of the region, but with enough cool air in place, right now I am not thinking that any rain is going to mix in. Cold front, associated with the low, though it’ll be weak, will push through the region introducing snow showers into the western half of the region by tomorrow morning. The snow showers will move quickly, and as far as accumulation is concerned, that will be a little tricky once again.

Looking for surface temperatures to be in an awkward spot during this, most of the time they’ll be hanging around 32° (like they were this morning) so again, accumulation from this system will be light in the west. Eastern half of the region will see the same system push through, but just a tad bit of lake effect could develop towards the end of that front, but again, I am not expecting much accumulation from that event.

Sounds simple enough, well it is for the most part. Upper level flow remains out of the northwest during this time as a broad upper low hangs around to the north of the Great Lakes. This upper level low is allowing for waves of low pressure to move around it (systems one and two) and then it’ll allow for a short wave to push into the region, introducing yet another chance for snow showers by the time Sunday night/Monday rolls around. Then another wave of energy pushes through, but this one will be accompanied by some warming air, so we might even pick up a few rain showers on Tuesday night, depending on how things go over.

Despite how awful that sounds, there is something in the horizon that is posing a question this afternoon for the region and that is for Thursday night (2 Feb.) and Friday (3 Feb.) as we might see a low pressure get a nice distance from us with some decent energy to us. Looks like it’ll start out as rain, but will make a turnover to snow showers. As to how much snow we could see at this point, well that is up for debates, I am not going to make any solid calls on this early in the forecast period, but it is something that I will keep an eye on and update you about as more information comes on. Looks like a fun system if all goes well.

So as far as updates on the site are concerned for this evening (which historically my evening off) this will be the last post until tomorrow morning and this will also double as the last forecast revision until tomorrow morning as well. If anything changes then I will update you sooner. So for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.