GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still looking like winter

13 January 2012

Still looking like winter

Things are going mainly to plan this morning across the region. A little bit of scare happened this morning when the snow showers weren't where they were suppose to be...but they were only a few hours late. Some of you in the west may be looking at those snow fall totals and wondering why I have dropped them? Well remember me typing about the awkward timing of this system. Most places in the west picked up a half inch to an inch of snow, and this goes into the 2-4 inch total. Today we'll get about 1-3 inches, so the snow fall total forecast remains the same, but it is only presented differently...make sense?

Closed upper level low making its way into the region right now, and that is going to really help those snow showers throughout the morning in the western half of the region. These snow showers will become widely scattered this afternoon, but they will still be around in the west. Now, the eastern half of the region is going to be something a little bit different today, and that will come in the form of lake effect snow showers. Erie will be able to pick up about 4-8 inches of snow through the course of the 24-hour day, and that doesn't include the additional snow fall you guys will get tomorrow. I did phase the totals a little bit, Cleveland with 3-7 inches, and Buffalo with about the same.

This afternoon, we're going to watch the upper level low kick that surface low to the east and get it to move, this will pull the snow showers with it, however it will allow for a continuous influx of cooler air into the western half of the region. This is also going to run over the lakes which will be enough to produce some lake effect.

Keeping an eye on the lake effect situation this morning, we're looking at temperature differnces between the surface and 850-mb level already climbing, about a 16°C difference already over Lake Erie. Not seeing a whole lot of converange at this point, nor are the winds in the best location, but that will change this afternoon. As this low pressure system starts to jog up to the northeast, we're going to watch the wind flow turn from the SW towards the W and eventually NW. Winds will be gusting upwards to 30 or maybe even a few 40-mph gusts here and there. This will be good enough to drag that cooler air over the warmer lake waters.

Weather calms down a little bit in the region on Saturday, save for a band of lake effect snow showers that will still be affecting the Erie area. We'll also watch a very weak disturbance slide through the south of the region - this is where that widely scattered flurries in the forecast comes from on Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday and into Monday, upper level flow remains to the NW which will help in keeping those temperatures a little bit below normal (which is good because we need it), but then we're going to watch a surface high pressure build in from the south and we're going to watch an upper level ridge slide into the region. Now this ridge wont be as well defined as the previous two, but it will allow for some warm advection take place, especially once that high slides off to the east.

Rain showers are going to be a possibility in the region on Tuesday, as a cold front develops along an upper level trough and works with its parent low pressure.

Looks like we do have yet another system on the way, and this one will be interesting as well. How much snow we can expect from this one is going to be a little bit on the questionable side, models not really showing much wrap around as I would like, so this is something that I will keep an eye on. Regardless, temperatures behind this front will cool down and we'll go back into the 20's for a high on Wednesday with a few snow showers. It might actually get cooler than that for the afternoon and overnight Wednesday. GFS showing that the 1000-500mb height will be at 510 which means that we could get into the teens once again. ECMWF showing somewhat of the same thing only it is a little bit slower with that air.

I'll type more about this system and the present one at 11.00 a.m., so make sure that you check back for updates on that. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.