GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Same Pattern Since November

24 January 2012

Same Pattern Since November

Weather a bit calmer today compared to what we've been seeing, but we're still going to be a degree or two above normal. The exiting low pressure is pulling in some cooler air, but not as much as I was expecting, nonetheless we'll keep highs today in the mid 30's with some lingering wind gusts this morning. There could still be a few lingering lake effect snow showers in the eastern half of the region, but with the small temperature difference between surface and 850-mb levels and the lack of moisture in the lower levels are making sure that nothing too exciting develops.

High pressure moving in from the west today will enter the region later tonight, and this is going to clear the skies out a little bit this evening and overnight across the region. A little cooler tonight with those lows and those are going to go down into the 20's throughout the region.

High pressure continues to dominate regional weather tomorrow, but at the same time the high will slide to the east and this is going to allow for a return of some slightly warmer weather into the region. Ridging in the upper levels will start to occur, however the ridging won't be that extreme so I wont go with 40's quite yet.

I still have some question with the enterance of the precip on Wednesday night as an advancing cold front from the north interacts with a weak trough of low pressure to our south, pushing up some rain showers into the region. As of now, I am going to keep Wednesday night dry in the region, which means that the snow showers aren't going to happen.

With the warmer air in place (temps around 40) the precip that makes it into the region by noon on Thursday will come in the form of rain once again. There could be a small mix towards the beginning of the precip, but I am not expecting that to be a major factor in the forecasts so for now, I am going to keep the snow out of the forecasts. The rain will fill the region tomorrow afternoon, but for now I am going to keep them scattered in the region.

System pulls out of the region by Thursday night and that will allow for that cold front and another weak high pressure to build into the region. This high will start to clear the skies out gradually and finally let some cooler air in...but not that cool of air. Some lake effect snow could develop on Friday morning in the eastern half of the region, but for now I am not going with accumulations because I am still hesistant with the temperatures.

So a calm week that is full of short waves and weak fronts, and that is going to give us some precip that we don't normally see in January (rain) and then we're going to calm down a little bit for the weekend in attempts to return to normal temperatures.

I'll keep you updated as always, I'll touch up those extended forecasts around 7.30 a.m. this morning, but my next Update Post will not be until about 11.30 a.m. this morning because I am not expecting many changes in the forecast. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.