GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A Normal Winter Day in the Region

14 January 2012

A Normal Winter Day in the Region

We're pushing the first system out of the way today in the region, and then we're going to see a brief break in the active weather. Some lingeing flurries in the region this morning, but those are going to be fairly light. Some lake effect snow over the in the eastern half of the region, which is to be expected. There might be a brief flare up snow flurries to the south of the western half of the regio, but I am expecting those to remain to the south of the region. So today won't really be an active day in the region. Cooler temps in part to that upper level low moving through the region this morning, we'll go with a lower 20's for a high today. However, we do have another system that is going to affect the region, and this one is going to be a little interesting compared to the one we just saw. It will be interesting in the fact that it's precip will be almost divided in two: rain and then snow. But how much snow could the region see from this system? In all honesty, probably not a lot. But let's take a look at this system.

Area of warm advection will push NE into the region on Monday, allowing for a weak ridge to develop in the region, but this will quickly turn to a SW flow allowing for precip to develop in the region. What we are going to see on Monday is a developing trough of low pressure in the Plains as an area of high pressure starts to slide SSE from the Rockies and into the Plains. This is really going to enhance the trough and this will allow for a surface low pressure to develop in the Plains. The surface low will develop a preceeding warm front and a trailing cold front with it.

Monday afternoon/early evening, the warm front is going to push through the region, allowing for rain showers to develop. Temperatures will remain a little bit mild, compared to what we're seeing now.

Monday night, upper level trough will continue to deepen over the Plains while the surface low perssure gets stronger. We're going to really see rain showers developing ahead of that cold front during this time - though the best of the rain showers will actually stay in Tennessee - and these rain will start to fill the region. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of the year, we'll go with mid 30's because the 540-mb won't really be that far away. The question at this time is going to be whether it will be scattered rain event or a steady rain event. For now, I am going to keep the rain showers as scattered so I wont worry about rain fall totals.

Tuesday, the low pressure centre really becomes organized and deepens further as that trough gets stronger. The high pressure will continue to slide down into the Plains, and we're going to see that lowpressure start to head towards the region. The low's cold front will be sliding to the region at this time as well.

Tuesday afternoon, low pressure nears the region, with its centre more than likely somewhere over Lake Michigan at this time. Looks like this low pressure is going to have some wrap around moisture, which means that we're going to see snow showers on the backside of this low pressure system anyways. But as of now, I am expecting that bulk of those will stay to the north of the region. Now the cold front is going to near the region during the early afternoon, which means that highs in Fort Wayne and Toledo and Detroit will occur in the early afternoon and then start to fall. I am expecting that the precip transition will be quick, but the temperature drop might be a little more gradual compared to the last front we saw.

Tuesday evening, looking for the front to make a complete passage throught the region during this time, and we're going to be looking at snow showers throughout the region.

So for now, knock on wood, this system is a very straight forward one. I am not expecting many surprises from this, the only tricky part to the forecast is going to be timing, but that comes naturally.

Now the other question of the morning is going to be how much snow we'll get from this system. I am actually not expecting that much accumulation will come from this, except for perhaps the eastern half of the region. The western half of the region will more than likely stay below an inch of snow. How much wrap around moisture with this system will be up for debate this afternoon. However, there is one thing that I can say with confidence, the temperature behind the front will be cool. Depending on where exactly this high pressure slips will determine the exact lows, but for now, I am going to keep the lows for Wednesday night generally in the mid to lower teens throughout the region. Otherwise, there really isn't much else to type about this system for now.

So, due to the calmness of the weather in the region today there will be no Noon update. However, the because I am not expecting a whole lot of information to change this morning or afternoon with the extended forecasts, so I will revise them around 5.00 p.m. this evening. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.