GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

17 January 2012

Noon Update

I didn't have to make that many tweaks to the forecasts as I orginally thought I would have to make. Things mainly going to plan this morning with the cold front pushing towards the region. A patch of dry has slipped into the region a little earlier than I was expecting, but not enough to change the forecasts for. The remaining rain showers in the region are going to be widely scattered and light and then late this afternoon we're going to watch some wrap around moisture attempt to give us some snow showers in the region. Temperatures are going to start dropping gradually from the west to east this afternoon as that cold front moves through the region. The western half of the region wont be seeing that much in the way of precip this evening, however the eastern half of the region could be seeing some decent snow.

As that cold front pushes over the lake as it heads to the Erie, naturally the temperature difference among the surface and 850-mb level will be good enough, and coupled with moisture and winds we're going to see a brief lake effect event take place in the Erie area. It wont last that long, about 12-15 hours, but in that time span Erie might pick up 2-4 inches (which is a dusting compared to other events).

The weather is going to calm down tomorrow as a high pressure builds in from the south. This high pressure will remain to the southwest of the region, allowing for some cooler air to pour in which means we'll have a day with normal high temperatures. This high pressure will quickly exit to the east, and it will allow for a little bit of warm advection to take place, however a clipper-type system will be right behind it and this will pull a cold front through the region once again and allowing for a shot at some more snow showers over the day Thursday.

This clipper will live up to its name and it won't last long, but it will push its front through and this will drop the temperatures a little bit more as well, and we'll for lows close to 10° on Thursday night in parts of the region.

Then we're going to watch a disturbance push through the region on Saturday, and this one is going to be disturbing in its own sense with the fact that it might actually bring rain or possibly sleet. It will be close, but for now I am thinking that we're going to stick on the snow side of it all, however monitoring on it will be given throughout the afternoon. Either way, it isn't going to be much.

Then we enter a warming trend. How warm will we get in the region? Well it is too early to make a call for the temperatures after Saturday night, but we'll go above average and that will be thanks to our next system which will be on its way. I'll save that part of the forecast for the Evening Post.

So no big changes to the forecast right now, I'll have another update coming up this afternoon around 4.00 p.m. around the same time that I revise those extended forecasts. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.