GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

12 January 2012

Noon Update

For a very fun weather system, I will probably make this the most boring post. Ok, lets get started on the weather shall we:

Right now, starting with the upper level winds at this time, the system is well noticed on the 300-mb level. A decent jet streak moving around the base of the trough is gusting upwards to 120-kts this afternoon. This streak will help enhance the low pressure at the surface. Upper level low developing over Iowa right now. Deep cool air being pulled down from the northern Plains will help to keep the trough going. Moving down to the 500-mb level, trough becomes well defined with the centre once agin in Iowa and a decent streak of 100-kt winds gusting around the base of the trough. This too will loop around, helping the surface low. 850-mb level looking decent this morning, with strong advection taking place in the Plains with cool air and being thrusted towards the region. 850-mb temps over Indiana right now are already falling to -2°C over eastern Chicago/Gary metro area, this will pour into the region later. Checking out the surface...not one, nor two or three, but 4 low pressure centres right now working to effect the region. The first one is moving away by a long shot, so it is not doing much other than keeping the second low (over lower Michigan) in the region. The other two low pressure working together to move the cold front through the region. Snow showers being reported as far away as Indianapolis right now...so not that far away. Snow showers extend in a broad line. The snow showers are from lifted moisture wrapping around the deepening low pressure over Michigan where it is cooling with the upper levels producing snow. Surface temperatures in Indiana (to show the power of the front): 35° in Fort Wayne, 27° in Lafayette. In Springfield, Illinois it is 17°.

Spotty light rain showers will continue throughout the region this afternoon with the transitional not occuring later. It is important that I make sure you know that the snow showers are coming in a cluster/band of their own being, seperate from the present rain showers. So when I say transitional, I am really saying that all remaining precip in the region will turn to snow. Got it? doesn't mean it'll be a constant rain then all of the sudden...BOOM...2-4 inches of snow. No, not necessairly. Here is what is going to happen this evening (we'll skip this afternoon for time purposes).

This is evening, widely scattered rain showers will still be out and about the region this evening. But remember that band of snow showers? Well it will be approaching. A few clusters of rain showers might form ahead of these snow showers. Here is why: that low pressure over lower Michigan is really deepening, and it will become strong enough that despite the front, it'll pull up just a quick burst of warm air ahead of the trough and that will cause for a chance of rain showers ahead of the snow showers. Then the cold air will actually wrap all the way around the low pressure and that is going to escentially "crush" the warm air trying to seep into the low. Also, that upper level trough is going to flat out push the low a little bit, which means that it will begin to move.

All of this is going to be happening within a matter of the next couple of hours. Sounds like a lot, but this is a normal day for a low pressure system.

The low pressure, which is starting to move, will finally allow for the snow shower band to enter the region. Remember, it is the lifted moisture cooling over the backside of the low that is causing that snow, and this is going to enter the region.

The snow showers enter the region fully (after the spotty precip ahead of it) and then the snow showers will come into the western half of the region for tonight. Again, the west will see about 1-3 tonight, with an additional 1-2 tomorrow, so we'll go with 2-4 inches for snow over a period of 12-hours. That is the western half of the region, how about the east?

The exact same thing, only add about 6-10 hours to it all and that is the weather for the east tonight and tomorrow. Now, there is one thing that is going to happen in the east, that might not so much happen in the west: Lake Effect snow showers. And with that, we'll type about that later once we get the first part of this system through.

I'll have another update coming up around 4.00 p.m. with revised forecasts at that time. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.