GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

03 January 2012

Noon Update

Nothing much going on in the region right now except for some lingering snow showers in the Erie, Cleveland and Buffalo areas this afternoon. For Erie, you guys can expect an additional 3-6 inches of snow fall today, and those snow showers are going to start dwindling throughout the afternoon.

Upper level trough sliding out of the region today, but not before giving the eastern half of the region one last shot at some cooler air. With the NW flow of the trough still in the region, Erie and inland areas near Buffalo can expect to see overnight lows dip down to about 10° and depending on how much clearing takes place, those temps might - dare I say - get to a single digit number late tonight.

Otherwise the region is going to enjoy a calm night as the trough slowly exits the region. However tomorrow we're going to watch a short wave speed through the region. This wave will introduce some widely scattered snow showers and flurries back into the region once again. However, I am not expecting that the snow showers are going to be heavy and the majority of them are going to be light, so we won't be seeing much of anything in terms of accumulation. The short waves slides out of the region tomorrow night and despite a few lingering flurries in the eastern half of the region the region will generally be calm once again.

Upper level flow turns from the northwest towards the west and this is going to allow for some warm advection to begin to take place on Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend we're going to be expecting temperatures to climb a little bit above normal, but then we're going to watch another upper level trough move towards the region.

This trough is going to be a little weird and might not have much moisture to work with. What this means is that the most we'll be seeing is cloud cover and maybe a light rain/snow shower. Now once this upper level trough gets into the region, we could be seeing some cooler weather return into the region - but nothing as cool as what we're seeing now.

I am not going to add any precip chances in the forecast quite yet for the western half of the region, but later this afternoon I may be adding some small chances in the eastern half of the region for the Saturday and/or Sunday.

The weather is going to be oddly quiet and a little above normal in terms of temperatures for this time of the year. But you must remember, we are in January, and historically the coldest weather of the season doesn't arrive until the end of this month and the start of next month. So we are still looking at decent shots of some polar air to enter the region over the course of the next few weeks. I'll type more about the historical patters later this afternoon.

Otherwise, nothing much going on in the region right now with the exception of some lingering snow showers in the eastern half of the region.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.