GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Is this really winter?

23 January 2012

Is this really winter?

Amazing for this time of the year: this morning I had to pull up radars that I never use in the winter time. But we had some storms roll through the Toledo area this morning with some decent rain, about 0.30 inches of rain fell here at the GLWX this morning, melting all of the snow (save for a few clumps here and there). Rain showers will make it through the entire region as the cold front gets ready to push through the region today, lowering temperatures only slightly, but not doing enough to cool us down a whole lot. Looking for temperatures to remain a little bit above average over the next few days, so lets go ahead and go just a tad bit more indepth with this system.

A strong low pressure centre located just to the west of Chicago (as of the 09Z charts) is sitting at 992-mbs this morning. Had this low pressure been the same size and located in Kentucky we'd all be seeing a blizzard, but nature wont give it to us this time. We're seeing rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder moving ahead of the cold front this morning, mainly along the warm front. Temperatures are well above normal for this time of the year, with a lot places getting close to 50 this morning. Fort Wayne at 45, Toledo at 47 and the coolest place I could find in the region this morning is Buffalo who is sitting at 38.

Cold front still back off to the west, and behind it temperatures will gradually fall back to the upper 30's. Looks like places in the west will see their highs this morning and the cold front will pass through early this afternoon with the eastern half seeing their highs early this afternoon.

The pool of cool air isn't that strong, so those temperatures wont go back that much. Look for overnight lows in the region to only bottom out around 25 at their lowest.

Speaking of cold, it is time for a fun weather fact. Did you know that today the coldest temperature in the U.S. was recorded. Yes indeed, today in 1971, temperatures in Prospect Creek, Alaska hit -80 (their high for the day was only -64) and to add to it all they had 56-inches of snow on the ground. We aren't going to be seeing that here in the forecast region any time soon.

Looking for a brief area of high pressure to build in the region, but cloud cover will still hang around. Some lingering flurries in the west early tomorrow morning, with a weak lake effect snow event taking place in the eastern half of the region. I am not expecting accumulations with the event to be that high...if there is even any...as the ground will be warm and overall highs tomorrow will not be able to support a decent accumulation. Look for about an inch at best in the Erie and Buffalo areas.

Weather is calm until Thursday as a weak cold front pushes through the region introducing some warm advection once again into the region. We'll see the precip remain widely scattered, so it won't be a major event. The precip will start off as snow for some, but quickly turn to rain and then back to snow before exiting. This system will last about 18-hours at the most in the region.

So how is that storm in Alabama doing? Well a reminder that this is the first time in over a year-and-a-half of forecasting and posting you all that I have used the word "tornado". But this storm isn't for us, it is located to the NW of Birmingham, AL and here is what we're looking at with this storm. The images I will show you are from an SRM (Storm Relative Motion) radar. The colours show you the direction and speed of the wind. Where there is a sharp contrast in colours (like the white vs. orange) that is where there is rotation if they are pushed right up against each other like what you're about to see:

Pretty cool, huh?

Cooler air finally works its way back into the region in response to an upper level low. I'll type more about that later, due to time (and the distraction of following that Alabama storm I mentioned during the last post). I'll have revised extended forecasts coming up around 7.30 a.m. this morning, but my next Update Post will not be until about 11.00 a.m. this morning. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.